Bigotry of low expectations

The storm is expected to bring less severe impacts to the region than the last area of low pressure that passed directly over San Francisco, said Rick Canepa, a forecaster with the National Weather Service.

The National Weather Service expanded the Monday-Tuesday wind advisory to include the North Bay, East Bay and eastern Santa Clara hills in addition to the coastal areas. The advisory is in effect Monday night through Tuesday afternoon, with peak gusts expected to be up to 40 to 50 mph. Winds are expected to begin developing in the North Bay at about 11 p.m. Monday before spreading across the Bay Area. The strongest winds are forecast late tonight into Tuesday afternoon.

“It’s going be half as windy as it was in the last storm in general,” local meteorologist Jan Null with Golden Gate Weather Services told SFGATE. “There will be some spots that will see winds that are just as strong, but generally it will be less windy. The real problem is the soils are still saturated. We will still see some trees coming down .”

Weather models were in agreement Monday morning that the first rains will arrive in the North Bay at about 8 p.m. this evening. Rain is expected to spread gradually into the greater Bay Area, likely reaching San Francisco at about midnight, before pushing into Monterey County on Tuesday morning. The rainy weather will likely persist into Tuesday and Wednesday.

As this cold front pushes across Bay Area, rain rates are likely to range from 0.1 to 0.3 inch per hour, but they could jump up to 0.5 inch per hour intermittently, the weather service said.

“We could see rises on creaks, streams and rivers, but not significant rises to warning levels,” Canepa said. “We could see some brief flooding in urban areas.”

The weather service is predicting that between Monday and Wednesday, most of the Bay Area, including San Francisco, will see 1 to 1.5 inches of rain, while the North Bay could pick up 1 to 4 inches in the coastal mountains, and the Santa Cruz Mountains could see 2 to 3 inches.

Cold air moved into the Bay Area behind the last system, and the corridor of northwest winds has been open ever since, Canepa said. “It has been pretty much almost continuous cold,” he said.

With these chilly conditions in place, the Bay Area’s mountain peaks are forecast to be frosted in snow. Snow levels could initially be as low as 2,500 feet Monday night, but are expected to rise to 4,000 to 6,000 feet by early Tuesday morning as the cold front will bring in “a little bit of warmth,” Canepa said.

The East Bay hills could pick up 1 to 1.5 inches of snow, and the Mayacamas Mountains (near the Napa and Sonoma county borders with Lake County) could see 3 to 6 inches.

There’s a slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday, and a slightly higher chance Wednesday when the low-pressure system skirts the Bay Area, Canepa said. “It looks like the system will be just over our coastal waters on Wednesday,” he said.

Mortgage rate trends

Mortgage rates rose precipitously between early February and the second week of March as key indicators suggested that the Federal Reserve had more work to do in its fight against inflation. However, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and others in subsequent days destabilized the economy enough that some wondered whether the Fed would raise the federal funds rate at all during its March 22 meeting. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its actions influence them, and the more hawkish it is on inflation , the higher mortgage rates tend to go.

By hiking the target borrowing rate by another 0.25%, the Fed believes it’s necessary to push on in its efforts to cool inflation. However, it kept its projections for the “terminal” rate — the highest it expects to raise interest rates — to 5.1%, suggesting that there will be few, if any, additional rate hikes after the most recent one. The benchmark borrowing rate currently sits at 4.75%-5%.

Mortgage rates have been volatile during the first two months of 2023. After rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages topped out at 7.24% in November, they fell steadily until early February, when pessimistic inflation data caused a rebound. However, consumer price index data released March 14 showed that inflation may be cooling ever so slightly, down to 6% in February from 6.4% in January.

The spring buying season hasn’t kicked off with its normal force, according to Redfin’s weekly housing market report. Instead, the number of new mortgage applications each week has been deeply entwined with the current state of mortgage rates: When rates are up, homebuyers scatter. When rates fall again, they rush to make their move. Thanks to the recent rate slide, mortgage applications have increased 17% over the past month, Redfin reported.

The even better news: Mortgage rates have probably already peaked for the year. “Mortgage rates are unlikely to increase again unless the next inflation report is worse than expected,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather in the report. “Sidelined buyers should be on high alert in the coming days and weeks, which could offer a window to lock in a rate closer to 6% than 7%.”

The flip-side is that the Fed also indicated credit would begin to tighten, which would make it harder  over the coming months to get a mortgage in the first place. That means potential homebuyers could have a window of opportunity right now to lock in a lower rate or refinance a mortgage that they took out between October and November, when rates were at their highest. (In most cases, a refinance makes the most sense when rates have dropped 0.75% or more.) Comparing rates between multiple lenders will help you find the best loan for your situation.

30-year fixed mortgage interest rates

On average, the interest rate for a 30-year mortgage on March 24 was 6.38%, down from 6.67% on March 17.

15-year fixed mortgage interest rates

On average, the interest rate for a 15-year mortgage on March 24 was 5.87%, down from 6.08% on March 17.

Jumbo mortgage interest rates

On average, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate jumbo mortgage on March 24 was 5.95%, down from 6.16% on March 17.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages

On average, the interest rate for a 5/1 ARM on March 24 was 6.45%, up slightly from 6.14% on March 17.

What determines mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are influenced by a variety of factors, including:

• Your credit score

• Down payment

• Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI)

• The type of loan you’re getting

• Loan term

• Interest rate type (fixed vs. adjustable)

• Inflation and the overall economy

• The Federal Reserve (which doesn’t set mortgage rates, but it certainly influences them )

Should you refinance your mortgage?

With mortgage rates dropping, a mortgage refinance could potentially save you money both on your monthly payments as well as the entire life of your loan. Here are a few factors to consider:

• Cost: If you refinance your mortgage, you must pay closing costs just like you did when you took out the loan in the first place. The average closing costs come to around $5,000 on a refinance, according to Freddie Mac . Other costs can include mortgage origination fees, appraisal fees, title fees and more. All told, the cost of refinancing a mortgage typically totals 2%-5% of the principal. If the closing costs outpace how much you’d save by refinancing, then it doesn’t make sense to alter your mortgage.

• How long you plan to stay in your home: You want to make sure you plan to stay in your home long enough to recoup the closing costs and other fees associated with refinancing your mortgage. For example, if it costs $4,000 to refinance your mortgage but you lower your monthly payment by $200, it will take you 20 months, or a little less than two years, to break even.

• Refinance rates: In most cases, it makes sense to refinance if mortgage rates drop more than three-quarters of a percentage point. The rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage peaked this fall at 7.24%, so if you took out a mortgage between October and November, it could make sense to refinance now.

Editorial Disclosure : All articles are prepared by editorial staff and contributors. Opinions expressed therein are solely those of the editorial team and have not been reviewed or approved by any advertiser. The information, including rates and fees, presented in this article is accurate as of the date of the publish. Check the lender’s website for the most current information.

This article was originally published on SFGate.com and reviewed by Jill Slattery, who serves as VP of Content for the Hearst E-Commerce team. Email her at [email protected]