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U.S. Economy Shows Another Decline, Fanning Recession Fears

July 28, 2022 by www.nytimes.com Leave a Comment

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A key measure of economic output fell for the second straight quarter, raising fears that the United States could be entering a recession — or perhaps that one had already begun.

Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, fell 0.2 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That drop followed a decline of 0.4 percent in the first quarter. The estimates for both periods will be revised in coming months as government statisticians get more complete data.

News of the back-to-back contractions heightened a debate in Washington over whether a recession had begun and, if so, whether President Biden was to blame. Economists largely say that conditions do not meet the formal definition of a recession but that the risks of one are rising.

For most people, though, a “recession” label matters less than the economic reality: Growth is slowing, businesses are pulling back and families are having a harder time keeping up with rapidly rising prices.

“We’re absolutely losing momentum,” said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist for Wells Fargo. “Income gains at minimum have struggled to keep pace with inflation, and that’s what is chipping away at people’s ability to spend.”

A deceleration, on its own, isn’t necessarily bad news. The Federal Reserve has been trying to cool the economy in a bid to tame inflation , and the White House has argued that the slowdown is part of an inevitable and necessary transition to sustainable growth after last year’s rapid recovery.

“Coming off of last year’s historic economic growth — and regaining all the private-sector jobs lost during the pandemic crisis — it’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation,” Mr. Biden said in a statement issued after the release of the G.D.P. report. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path, and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.”

Still, forecasters in recent weeks have become increasingly concerned that the Fed’s aggressive moves — including raising interest rates three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday for the second month in a row — will result in a recession.

Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chairman, acknowledged that the path to avoiding a downturn was “narrowing,” in part because of global forces, including the war in Ukraine and strict pandemic policies in China, that are beyond the central bank’s control.

Inflation F.A.Q.


Card 1 of 5

Inflation F.A.Q.


What is inflation? Inflation is a loss of purchasing power over time , meaning your dollar will not go as far tomorrow as it did today. It is typically expressed as the annual change in prices for everyday goods and services such as food, furniture, apparel, transportation and toys.

Inflation F.A.Q.


What causes inflation? It can be the result of rising consumer demand. But inflation can also rise and fall based on developments that have little to do with economic conditions, such as limited oil production and supply chain problems .

Inflation F.A.Q.


Is inflation bad? It depends on the circumstances. Fast price increases spell trouble, but moderate price gains can lead to higher wages and job growth.

Inflation F.A.Q.


How does inflation affect the poor? Inflation can be especially hard to shoulder for poor households because they spend a bigger chunk of their budgets on necessities like food, housing and gas.

Inflation F.A.Q.


Can inflation affect the stock market? Rapid inflation typically spells trouble for stocks. Financial assets in general have historically fared badly during inflation booms , while tangible assets like houses have held their value better.

“When you’re skating on thin ice, you wonder about what it would take to push you through, and we’re on thin ice right now,” said Diane Swonk, the chief economist for KPMG.

Matthew Martin, 32, is paying more for the butter and eggs that go into the intricately decorated sugar cookies he sells as part of a home business. At the same time, his sales are falling.

“I guess people don’t have as much money to toss at cookies right now,” he said.

Mr. Martin, a single father of two, is trying to cut back on spending, but it isn’t easy. He has replaced trips to the movies with day hikes, but that means spending more on gas. He is hoping to sell his house and move into a less expensive place, but finding a house he can afford to buy has proved difficult, especially as mortgage rates have risen. He has thought about finding a conventional 9-to-5 job to pay the bills, but he would then need to pay for child care for his 4-year-old twins.

“Honestly, I’m not 100 percent sure what I’m going to do,” he said.

When G.D.P. fell in the first three months of the year, some dismissed the decline as a fluke, the result of quirks in how the government accounts for spending and investment. Underlying measures of demand remained solid, and many economists thought it was likely that the first-quarter data would eventually be revised to show a modest gain.

The second-quarter decline, though milder, is harder to dismiss. Home building dropped sharply, business investment stalled and after-tax income, adjusted for inflation, fell. Consumer spending, the bedrock of the economy, grew, although at its slowest pace since the first months of the pandemic.

“The second quarter is really closer to the definition of a bona fide slowdown,” said Gary Schlossberg, a global strategist with Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “What we saw in this quarter was an outright decline in domestic spending.”

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Economists often use two quarters of falling G.D.P. as a shorthand definition of a recession. In some countries, that is the formal definition.

But in the United States, declaring a recession falls to a private, nonprofit research organization, the National Bureau of Economic Research. The group defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months,” and it bases its decisions on a variety of indicators — usually only months after the fact.

Some forecasters believe a recession can be avoided, if inflation cools enough that the Fed can slow interest rate increases before they take too much of a toll on hiring and spending.

Understand Inflation and How It Affects You

  • Inflation Calculator: How you experience inflation can vary greatly depending on your spending habits. Answer these seven questions to estimate your personal inflation rate .
  • Managing Your Finances: With interest rates rising, now is a good time to pay down credit card balances and bolster emergency savings .
  • Cost of Living: As food prices rise, eating is becoming increasingly expensive . We took a close look at five New Yorkers’ food and drink habits to see where the effects are most felt.

The economy still has important areas of strength. Job growth has remained robust, and, despite a recent uptick in filings for unemployment insurance, there is little sign of a broad increase in job losses.

Households, in the aggregate, are sitting on trillions of dollars in savings built up earlier in the pandemic, which could allow them to weather higher prices and interest rates.

“What drives the U.S. consumer is the healthy labor market, and we should really focus on job growth to capture the turning point in this business cycle,” said Blerina Uruci, an economist at T. Rowe Price. The Labor Department will release data on July’s hiring and unemployment next week.

The lingering effects of the pandemic are making the economy’s signals harder to interpret. Americans bought fewer cars, couches and other goods in the second quarter, but forecasters had long expected spending on goods to fall as consumers shifted back toward prepandemic spending patterns. Indeed, economists argue that a pullback in spending on goods is needed to relieve pressure on overstretched supply chains.

At the same time, spending on services accelerated. That could be a sign of consumers’ resilience in the face of soaring airfares and rental car rates. Or it could merely reflect a temporary willingness to put up with high prices, which will fade along with the summer sun.

“There is going to be this element of, ‘We haven’t had a summer vacation in three years, so we’re just going to take one, no matter how much it costs,’” said Aditya Bhave, a senior economist for Bank of America. “The question is what happens after the summer.”

Avital Ungar is trying to interpret the conflicting signals in real time. Ms. Ungar operates a small business running food tours for tourists and corporate groups in San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York.

When restaurants closed and travel stopped early in the pandemic, Ms. Ungar had no revenue. She made it through by offering virtual happy hours and online cooking classes. When in-person tours came back, business was uneven, shifting with each new coronavirus variant. Ms. Ungar said demand remained hard to predict as prices rise and the economy slows.

“We’re in two different types of uncertainty,” she said. “There was the pandemic uncertainty, and then there’s the economic uncertainty right now.”

In response, Ms. Ungar has shifted her focus to higher-end tours, which she believes will hold up better than those aimed at more price-sensitive customers. And she is trying to avoid long-term commitments that could be difficult to get out of if demand cools.

“Every annual plan I’ve done in the past three years has not happened that way,” she said. “It’s really important to recognize that what worked yesterday isn’t going to work tomorrow.”

Lydia DePillis

Filed Under: Business US Economy, Recession and Depression, Inflation, GDP, Federal Reserve, Interest rate, Consumer behaviour, Commerce Department, Joe Biden, US Politics, Business, United..., recession fears, recession fears 2018, economy what is a recession, sullivan's show barn fan, mtv show where fans recreate music videos, who fanned the fear of the red menace, stops show for fan, ypk fan der fear, recession fears 2019, why atm card shows declined

Hawaii Chamber Of Commerce: Pacific Business News: Business Reacts To Electric Bill Bump Following Coal Plant Shutdown

August 13, 2022 by patch.com Leave a Comment

Business

“Any increase in costs to businesses right now is going to have a negative impact on our economy,”.

Press Release Desk's profile picture

Press Release Desk , News Partner
Posted

Press release from the Hawaii Chamber of Commerce:

August 12, 2022

The closure of the AES Corporation coal-fired power plant is expected to result in a 7% increase in residential electricity bills, or an average increase of $15 a month. The power purchase agreement between AES and Hawaiian Electric of the plant located at Campbell Industrial Park ends at midnight on September 1, according to Hawaiian Electric.

Businesses are on different rate schedules than residential, depending on how much electricity they use, Hawaiian Electric Vice President of Government and Community Relations and Corporate Communications, Jim Kelly, told PBN. The rate increase will add about 3 cents per kilowatt hour to the rate businesses are currently paying, which varies depending on what rate they are on, Kelly said. Government and nonprofits pay the same rates as residential customers.

“Any increase in costs to businesses right now is going to have a negative impact on our economy,” Chamber of Commerce Hawaii’s Associate Vice President of Business Advocacy and Development, Trevor Abarzua, told PBN. “Companies are still getting back on their feet from the pandemic and the cost to do business is much higher due to inflation and the supply chain issues.”

The cost of discontinuing the use of coal for power was originally expected to result in an increase of about $2 more per month for typical customers, but then oil prices surged earlier this year following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hawaiian Electric said. The increase will start showing up for customers in bills they receive in October.

“With the increase in costs to electric bills, businesses will have less capital to invest in their business or hire additional staff,” Abarzua told PBN. “While there are many factors that go into the increase in electric bills, we hope there is a quick solution so businesses can use their resources to help grow their business and ultimately the economy.”

Following the end of the 30-year contract, Hawaiian Electric says they will use renewable resources and existing power plants to meet Oahu’s needs.

The Chamber of Commerce will work with legislative leaders, HECO, and other community organizations to see what can be done to help alleviate the costs of electricity for businesses that are still struggling from the state of the economy, according to Abarzua.

“The Chamber understands that Hawaiian Electric is just following the law when it comes to closing the Campbell Industrial Park Coal Plant and increasing their rates due to the shutdown,” Abarzua told PBN. “While it comes at an inopportune time for businesses because of all that is going on with the economy (COVID recovery, inflation, and supply chain issues) we know long term this is what’s best for the environment and for the State of Hawaii.”

“Also, HECO has additional renewable energy projects that are underway currently on Oahu, and that once those projects are at full capacity it will produce more electricity and reduce costs for businesses.”


This press release was produced by the Hawaii Chamber of Commerce . The views expressed here are the author’s own.

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ETtech Deals Digest: UpGrad closes one of the biggest deals of the year

August 12, 2022 by economictimes.indiatimes.com Leave a Comment

Synopsis

upGrad and Clevertap raised a combined $315 million this week.

Amid the ongoing funding winter, edtech unicorn upGrad raised one of the largest pots this year, with SaaS startup Clevertap coming in second. Wealth Management startup Dezerv was among the other startups that raised funds this week.

UpGrad raised $210 million from marquee investors

Ronnie Screwvala-led UpGrad picked up $210 million in a funding round at a $2.5 billion valuation. Many prominent investors participated in the round, including existing backers Temasek, IFC and IIFL. The funding comes amidst a challenging period for edtech startups, with many like Byju’s and Unacademy cutting their headcount to navigate the gloomy economic environment.

SaaS startup Clevertap landed $105 million from CDPQ and others

Customer engagement and user retention software platform Clevertap raised $105 million in a Series D funding round led by global investment group CDPQ. IIFL AMC’s tech fund and existing investors Tiger Global and Sequoia India also participated in the round. ET had reported on August 9 that the company was looking to raise $75 million. Clevertap aims to use the fresh funds for expansion and strengthening its team.

Dezerv raised $21 million led by

Accel

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One-year-old wealth management startup Dezerv raised $21 million in a funding round led by Accel, with existing investors like Whiteboard Capital and Elevation Capital also participating. Founded by Sandeep Jethwani, Sahil Contractor and Vaibhav

Porwal

, Dezerv offers a tech-driven financial platform for working professionals to manage their money. So far, it has seen close to Rs 800 crore invested through its platform and plans to use the fresh capital to add new investment opportunities.

Jodo raised $15 million led by Tiger Global

Jodo, a fintech startup focused on education payments, raised $15 million in funding led by Tiger Global . Founded in 2020 by Atulya Bhat, Raghav Nagarajan and Koustav Dey, Jodo provides specialised payment and lending products to make fee payments convenient and affordable for parents of students. It also makes fee collection hassle-free for educational institutes. The startup has catered to over 100,000 students and processed over Rs 1,000 crore in fee payments.

Web3 startup Lysto raised $12 million

Lysto, a Web3 startup that provides tools to gamers, raised $12 million in funding from a clutch of investors such as Square Peg, Beenext, Tiger Global and Better Capital, among others. Lysto builds tools to enable verified on-chain digital credentials from issuer to gamer. It previously raised $3 million in seed funding.

Ecommerce firm Ohsogo bagged $8 million

Bangladesh-based beauty and skincare e-commerce startup Ohsogo raised $8 million in funding led by Singapore-based FMCG giant Believe Pte. Started by Bangladesh’s state minister for Information and Communication Technology Zunaid Ahmed Palak, Ohsogo is ranked number two among beauty and skincare ecommerce players in the country.

Other done deals

■ Cell Therapy startup Eyestem raised Rs 51 crores ($6.4 million) from pharma majors Biological E (BE), Alkem,

Natco

and Anurag and Karan Bagaria, promoters of Kemwell Biopharma. The round valued the company at $46.4 million.

■ Agriculture exports startup Produze raised $2.6 million , led by Accel Partners. All In Capital and other angel investors, including the founders of Ninjacart and Citymall, also participated in the round.

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Why small businesses are fearing the worst

August 18, 2022 by news.sky.com Leave a Comment

Following the pandemic, visitors were just starting to return this summer to the Portsmouth Historic Dockyard, a naval museum that includes attractions such as Vice-Admiral Lord Nelson’s flagship HMS Victory, when the cultural centre received its next blow.

Chief executive Hannah Prowse was informed that the site’s energy bill would be going up next year by £484,991 – an increase of 230%.

Ms Prowse, who runs the Portsmouth Naval Base Property Trust which owns the land that the museum sits on, told Sky News that sharply rising energy costs had put the site “in a very difficult situation.”

And in a twist of bitter irony, the bills would have to be paid out of money set aside to invest in making the museum more environmentally friendly, she said.

“We’re taking it out of reserves that we would’ve put in energy sustainability work,” said Ms Prowse. If these prices continued for a prolonged period, she added, the situation would become “fairly untenable.”

“It won’t bankrupt us instantly but it puts us in a precarious situation. And for smaller cultural institutions this will be a death knell.”

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Loading Placeholder Image - Sky News Logo 2:46

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has said people will ‘not pay a penny more’ on their winter energy bills

The museum is one of many businesses facing what experts have described as a potentially “catastrophic” winter this year, as Russia squeezes European gas flows in response to sanctions, sending both household and business bills skyrocketing.

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But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine just compounded an already bad situation for small companies in the UK.

Some businesses will see their bills increase by fivefold from October, according to research published earlier this month by consultancy Cornwall Insight.

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One of the key differences between consumer energy bills and business rates is that companies aren’t subject to a price cap in the way that households are, meaning there is no limit to how high prices can rise for firms.

This is on top of surging energy costs shouldered by companies last year too, triggered by the short supply of electricity in Europe and disruption to liquified natural gas (LNG) markets.

As such, more than half of all small and medium-sized companies surveyed in the UK are concerned that brutally high energy bills could force them out of business this year, according to the SME Insights Report.

“Business energy prices have climbed considerably in the past 15 months, and they stand on the verge of another significant steep uplift when new contracts come into place for the period from 1st October 2022,” said Robert Buckley, head of relationship development at Cornwall Insight.

“Logic dictates that there can only be so long that so many businesses can pay so much more for their energy without knock-on consequences for themselves, their suppliers, and the wider economy, and if we at Cornwall Insight are correct there will be no return to 2020-21 wholesale prices before 2030,” he said.

“Despite this, in contrast to households, there has been strikingly little said about the affordability of business energy bills.”

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Rishi Sunak has said he will ramp up financial support to vulnerable groups to help with energy bills. Speaking at a Conservative leadership hustings he said 'we will need to provide more than I thought previously because the bills are worse,' 1:05

Rishi Sunak has said he will ramp up financial support

Some are surprised about the lack of attention that small businesses and cultural institutions are receiving, given the potential impact of higher energy prices to devastate the government’s economic growth strategy.

Small and medium-sized enterprises employ approximately 60% of the entire UK workforce, and account for around half of the UK private sector’s entire revenue each year.

And yet some 390,000 small businesses went under in the first year of the pandemic alone. And some experts predict that number could be worse as a result of the energy crisis.

“Any cost of living plan worth the name needs to tackle the mounting energy bills small firms face – inaction won’t just lead to spiralling prices but to a generation of lost businesses, jobs and potential,” said Tina McKenzie, policy and advocacy chair at the Federation of Small Businesses, in a statement.

“Small businesses and the self-employed together are simply too important, and both the economy and local communities depend on their success,” she added. “They need the right public policy supporting them to survive and thrive.”

The hospitality industry, in particular, remains in a hazardous position, with rising supply chain costs, a lack of staff, and weakened finances following two difficult years during the pandemic.

Pub, restaurant, and hotel bosses wrote to the government earlier this week pleading for support, saying that without help the sector faced a wave of closures.

So far, the government has not laid out any plans to support the hospitality industry.

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Boris Johnson has urged energy companies to act in the national interest

“On Friday, the government saw fit to declare a drought, in the face of inarguable evidence that weather conditions had caused a threat to the nation. The energy crisis is no less of a threat and deserves similar attention,” UK Hospitality, the Night Time Industries Association, the British Beer and Pub Association, the British Institute of Innkeeping, and the Music Venue Trust said in the letter.

A quarter of all hospitality firms are considering closing down within the next 12 months due to energy prices, according to a recent survey conducted by eEnergy.

To ease the strain on firms, the Federation of Small Businesses has recommended that the government offer direct financial help to small companies, while temporarily reducing taxes on energy and extending the price cap to the businesses most in need.

For Ms Prowse at the Portsmouth Historic Dockyard, like for many business owners and chief executives, the energy crisis has been a bigger hit than even COVID-19, she said.

“No one seems to be talking yet about support for heritage institutions,” she said. But the “government needs to get a better grip for hospitals, households,” and companies too, she added.

Their policies, she said, “are not fit for purpose.”

Filed Under: Uncategorized working at small business administration

Japan launches campaign for young people to drink more to boost economy

August 18, 2022 by www.newsweek.com Leave a Comment

Japan’s national tax agency has reportedly launched a national competition in hopes to make alcoholic drinks more attractive to the younger generation, boosting the economy in turn.

The “Sake Viva” campaign asks 20-39 year-olds to share their business ideas to increase demand for alcoholic drinks including Japanese sake, shochu, whiskey, beer or wine. This contest was devised after a realization that Generation Z (people born between 1997 and the early 2010s) is drinking less alcohol which has hit taxes for adult beverages.

Recent trends have indicated that Generation Z drinks less than millennials, a trend that has resulted in lower alcohol sales and therefore less income for the government through taxes.

Contestants are asked to come up with promotions, branding and even cutting-edge plans involving artificial intelligence.

The group running the competition for the tax authority says new habits have formed during the COVID-19 pandemic, which has contributed to the downward trend in drinking alcohol.

Response to this campaign has been mixed in the country, according to Japanese media, BBC reported. Some have argued it promotes an unhealthy habit while others have reveled in the challenge and suggested quirky ideas to increase the sale of alcohol.

Contestants have until the end of September to put forward their ideas. The best plans will then be developed with help from experts before the final proposals are presented in November.

A report by the Pace Recovery Center, a California addiction treatment center, shed some light on why there is a growing trend to consume less alcohol among the younger generation.

“The younger generations, particularly the Millennials and GenZers, are drinking less than their older counterparts,” the report said. “This is due, in part, to the fact that they fear what will happen when they lose control when drinking and how their actions will appear on social media platforms such as Snapchat , Facebook and Instagram .

“These younger generations are also concerned about their health as well, but are mainly influenced by a wider cultural shift that young people have accepted as normal.”

The report added that sales of non-alcoholic beer and cocktails have also seen an increase as part of this trend to reduce alcohol consumption.

“A 2018 report prepared by Berenberg Research found that GenZers around the world, along with their millennial counterparts, are drinking less than older generations did at their age,” Pace Recovery Center said.

“The report also found that 64 [percent] of those respondents in Gen Z said they expected to drink alcohol less frequently when they grow older than the older generations do now. They cite health concerns, as well as concerns about hangovers and worries over how they will be judged when they drink.”

Newsweek reached out to the Japanese government for comment.

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