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Oecd warns of overheating in irish economy

EU’s economy teetering on edge as growth figures hint at crushing recession — VDL on brink

August 18, 2022 by www.express.co.uk Leave a Comment

Russia: TV host says Europe wants revenge for historic defeats

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GDP in the European Union (EU) and the Euro zone grew by 0.6 percent between the months of April and June this year, according to a flash estimate produced by the EU’s statistical office, Eurostat . This represents a slight downward revision from the preliminary estimate released a month ago, and many analysts predict the European economy will begin contracting by the end of the year.

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Europe is the region the most directly affected by fallout from Russia ’s invasion of Ukraine .

Aside from sharing thousands of miles of land borders, Europe has long been dependent on Russian imports of crude oil and natural gas, whose prices have soared as a result of sanctions.

During the second quarter of 2022, economic output across the 19 countries that use the Euro as their currency – the Euro zone – increased by just 0.6 percent, down from the 0.7 percent forecast just a month ago .

For the EU as a whole, GDP also grew by 0.6 percent, according to data released by Eurostat today.

GDP growth across Europe map

GDP growth across Europe is slowing as fears the bloc is heading for recession loom (Image: GETTY)

Ursula von der Leyen address July 2022

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen outlined the EU’s winter gas saving plan in July (Image: GETTY)

A year ago, during the same quarter, seasonally adjusted GDP went up by 3.9 percent in the Euro area and by four percent in the EU, as the bloc emerged from the pandemic.

In the first quarter of 2022, GDP grew by 0.5 percent in the euro area and by 0.6 percent in the EU.

Although these figures remain positive, the ongoing supply-chain and energy crises, as well as the rampant inflation they are causing, have led many to suggest Europe is hurtling towards a recession.

Released in July, the European Commission’s Summer 2022 Economic Forecast projected growth of 2.7 percent for the EU economy in 2022, and 1.5 percent in 2023.

READ MORE: Inflation in Europe and the world: Data shows major impending crisis

GDP growth across Europe mapped

Germany, the EU’s largest economy, stagnated between April and June this year (Image: EXPRESS)

Nord Stream 1 gas supply levels

GAS SUPPLY: After being cut off completely for 10 days, the flow of gas is at 20 percent the norm (Image: EXPRESS)

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Vital gas supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany have now been reduced to 20 percent of their pre-invasion level. European Commission joined a growing number of economists in warning of a recession in late 2022 if gas supplies were to be cut off completely.

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Map of July inflation rates around the world

Inflation rates around the world mapped as of July 2022 (Image: EXPRESS)

Record 39.7 percent energy price inflation for the EU on the year, is said to be the driving force behind the bloc’s 8.9 percent inflation announced for July, up from 8.6 percent in June, according to Eurostat . The Baltic countries, sharing a land border with Russia, have seen prices rise at a higher rate than any others in the EU, Estonia reporting 22 percent, Lithuania 20.5 percent and Latvia 19.2 percent. Many Eastern European countries follow, such as the Czech Republic (16.6 percent), Poland (14.2 percent) and Hungary (12.6 percent).

Western Europe has performed marginally better, yet also faces some of its highest rates of inflation in decades.

Sharply rising prices mean consumers are able to spend less on goods and services in the economy, raising the risk of recession even further.

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The EU and Euro zone’s second quarter growth was primarily driven by Spain’s relatively strong 1.1 percent increase in GDP during the quarter, and Italy’s one percent.

In contrast, the German economy, the largest in the bloc, stagnated, reporting zero percent growth for the quarter, dragging the EU average down considerably.

Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Portugal all saw their economies contract during the three-month period.

Last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed UK GDP had fallen by 0.1 percent during the April to June quarter, while US GDP fell by 0.2 percent during the same period.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook Update released in July, entitled Gloomy and More Uncertain , predicted global economic growth would slow to 3.2 percent this year, down from 6.1 percent in 2021.

The report said: “The risk of recession is particularly prominent in 2023, when in several economies growth is expected to bottom out, household savings accumulated during the pandemic will have declined, and even small shocks could cause economies to stall.”

On July 26, the EU renewed its economic sanctions on Russia until January 31, 2023.

Since then ​​the European Central Bank has forecast the bloc’s inflation rate to average 6.8 percent for 2022, falling to 3.5 percent for 2023 and 2.1 percent in 2024.

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Filed Under: World headlines, ctp_video, autoplay_video, europe recession, eu recession, europe economy, eu economy, growth, gdp, inflation, europe..., brink eu, hints for candy crush, jobless growth in indian economy, growth uk economy, edges growth, circular economy eu, hints candy crush, recession economy, edges growth products, hints on candy crush

UK could be brought to standstill by wave of strikes hitting ‘every sector’ warning

August 18, 2022 by www.mirror.co.uk Leave a Comment

Britain could be brought by a standstill by a wave of strikes hitting “every sector of the economy”, a union chief warned this morning.

Mick Lynch, general secretary of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union (RMT), joined striking rail workers at Euston Station taking part in a picket line.

Just one in five trains are running across the country because of the mass walkout by members of the RMT and TSSA unions.

He warned that industrial action is likely to spread across industries in the coming months, saying people “are fed up with the way they’ve been treated”.

But Mr Lynch stopped short of predicting a General Strike, saying that could only be done by the TUC.

Mr Lynch said: “What you are going to get is a wave of solidarity action, generalised strike action, synchronised action.

Mick Lynch today said workers are “fed up” and predicted widespread industrial action (

Image:

ITV)

“And you’ll see it in every sector of the economy, in education, in health, wider parts of the transport system, in all sectors, the private sector as well.

“People are fed up with the way they’ve been treated. The British worker is basically underpaid and gets no dignity or respect in the workplace.

“We’ve got to change that so we get a square deal for everyone in Britain – and that’s what the unions are determined to do.”

He said the rail strike “won’t be broken” until there is a settlement to the dispute as he refused to put an end date on the industrial action.

Speaking in front of a picket line at Euston station, the RMT general secretary told the PA news agency: “We don’t have a fixed programme – I don’t have a whiteboard saying it starts on this day and it ends on that day.

It is the latest in a series of strikes in recent months (

Image:

Getty Images)

“We won’t be broken. We are determined to get a settlement.

“People have shown on the picket lines they are determined to dig in, we’re not going to waste our members’ efforts.

“We will take the action that our members want to take as we go along, so we’re not going to be broken.

“We will continue the fight until we get a settlement.”

A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “Yet again, for the sixth time since June, union leaders are opting to inflict misery and disrupt the day-to-day lives of millions instead of working with industry to agree a deal that will bring our railways into the 21st century.

“Today, thousands of A-level students across the country, many of whom have spent the majority of their college years studying at home due to the pandemic, are now being denied the chance to celebrate their hard work and dedication face to face with peers and teachers.

“It’s clear strikes are not the powerful tool they once were and union chiefs are no longer able to bring the country to a standstill as, unlike them, the world has changed and people simply work from home.

“All these strikes are doing is hurting those people the unions claim to represent, many of whom will again be out of pocket and forced to miss a day’s work.

“We urge union bosses to do the right thing by their members and let them have their say on Network Rail’s very fair deal, which will deliver the reforms our rail system urgently needs.

“It’s time to get off the picket lines and back around the negotiating table – the future of our railway depends on it.”

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Filed Under: Uncategorized Politics, Conservative Party, Trades Union Congress, RMT union, Department for Transport, Unions, RMT...

Former Bank of England policy maker Danny Blanchflower issues warning for next UK PM. Check out what it is!

August 18, 2022 by economictimes.indiatimes.com Leave a Comment

Synopsis

Danny Blanchflower, the former policy maker of the Bank of England, says that a UK recession will lead the next PM to scrap talks about possible tax cuts. It would also deliver a blow to hopes of a huge aid programme to prevent their economy from collapsing.

Danny Blanchflower , a US economics professor, said there should be a cut in interest rates immediately, which would probably be reduced by the end of this year. The remarks came in an interview with a known radio station.

Bank of England’s former policy maker’s remarks sharply contrast with a consensus that believes that borrowing costs need to rise to battle inflation. Inflation rose to 10.1%, which is the highest in 40 years.

Blanchflower believes that the protagonist in the crisis would not be the Bank of England ( BOE ) but the government. He also took a dig at Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak of the Conservative Party as they compete to be the next Prime Minister by replacing Boris Johnson .

Both contenders have promised to cut taxes but have not been clear about how they would be helping the poor class.

Blanchflower said that the looming problem had not been solved with what both contenders had said. He added that the idea of cutting taxes and changing corporate taxes isn’t going to help someone who rides the Mile End Road omnibus.

He also took a swipe at Andrew Sentance , a former colleague, and said that Santance’s advice on the radio on Wednesday was completely disastrous for the economy. He asked what increasing rates to four percent would do to ordinary people. He said that the bank forecasts a horrible recession and they should stop.

He expects an adverse turn in inflation once the recession hits and notes that the cost of corn, shipping and oil is already declining.

Disclaimer: This content is authored by an external agency. The views expressed here are that of the respective authors/ entities and do not represent the views of Economic Times (ET). ET does not guarantee, vouch for or endorse any of its contents nor is responsible for them in any manner whatsoever. Please take all steps necessary to ascertain that any information and content provided is correct, updated and verified. ET hereby disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, relating to the report and any content therein.
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Filed Under: Uncategorized bank of england, danny blanchflower, blanchflower, boris johnson, liz truss, rishi sunak, andrew sentance, boe, conservative party, danny..., which domestic issues might influence uk's foreign policy, monetary policy bank of england, monetary policy committee bank of england

Ukraine warns of new Russian offensive; Sweden, Finland move closer to joining NATO

August 4, 2022 by www.moneycontrol.com Leave a Comment

Representative image (Image: AP)

Representative image (Image: AP)

Ukraine said Russia had started creating a military strike force aimed at President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, as NATO moved closer to the most significant expansion of the alliance in decades as it responds to the invasion of Ukraine.

The U.S. Senate and the Italian parliament both approved onWednesday Finland and Sweden’s accession to the 30-member North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Under NATO membership, which must be ratified by all 30 member states, an attack on one member is an attack against all.

“This historic vote sends an important signal of thesustained, bipartisan U.S. commitment to NATO, and to ensuringour Alliance is prepared to meet the challenges of today andtomorrow,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement.

Russia, which invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, has repeatedly warned Finland and Sweden against joining NATO.

NATO’s 30 allies signed the accession protocol last month, allowing them to join the U.S.-led nuclear-armed alliance once its members ratify the decision.

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Ratification could take up to a year.

Ukraine on Wednesday dismissed suggestions by former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder that Russia wanted a “negotiated solution” to the five-month war and said any dialogue would be contingent on a Russian ceasefire and withdrawal of its troops.

Tentative attempts at peace talks in March went nowhere.

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Thursday that Ukraine was seeking an opportunity to speak “directly” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to help end the war.

In an interview with SCMP, Zelenskiy urged China to use its political and economic influence over Russia to bring an end to the fighting.

“It’s a very powerful state. It’s a powerful economy  So(it) can politically, economically influence Russia. And Chinais (also a) permanent member of the U.N. Security Council,” thereport quoted Zelenskiy as saying.

NEW SOUTHERN OFFENSIVE

Ukraine on Wednesday night said Russia was engaged in considerable military activity in the east, northeast and south of the country and warned that Moscow could be preparing new offensive operations in southern Ukraine.

Dmytro Zhyvytsky, governor of Sumy region on the border with Russia, said three towns had been shelled by Russian forces on Wednesday, with a total of 55 missiles fired. There were no injuries, but homes and commercial premises were damaged.

He said eight artillery shells hit residential parts of Krasnopilska community.

Reuters was not able to verify battlefield reports.

Russia denies it targets civilians, but many towns and cities have been destroyed and thousands of civilians killed in the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two. Ukraine and its Western allies accuse Russian forces of war crimes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops in Ukraine in what he said was a “special military operation” to rid the country of fascists. Ukraine and the West said Putin launched an unprovoked “imperial” land grab.

The war has sparked a global energy and food crisis. Russia and Ukraine produce about one third of global wheat and Russia is the main energy supplier to Europe.

An agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, to allow safe passage of grain ships from Ukraine has been hailed as a rare diplomatic success in the war.

The first ship carrying Ukrainian grain since the war started passed through the Bosphorus Strait on Wednesday.

The ship, Razoni, left Odesa on the Black Sea early on Monday carrying 26,527 tonnes of corn to the Lebanese port of Tripoli.

A senior Turkish official said three ships could leave Ukrainian ports daily following the Razoni’s departure, while Ukraine’s infrastructure minister said 17 more ships had been loaded with agricultural produce and were waiting to set sail.

Filed Under: Uncategorized World news, Ukraine, Russia, Sweden, Finland, NATO

Germany to miss gas storage target amid warnings of winter shortages

August 18, 2022 by news.sky.com Leave a Comment

Germany will fail to meet its gas stocks target set by the government to avoid a winter energy crisis amid a Russian supply squeeze, the country’s regulator has warned.

Klaus Mueller, president of the Federal Network Agency, said there was “hardly a chance” of meeting the November benchmark because some storage sites were already depleted.

He also cautioned that Germany – Europe’s biggest economy – faced two tough winters.

The country is currently in the second phase of a three-stage emergency plan to reduce its heavy dependence on Russian gas following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine .

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Germany has already hit its first target for gas storage facilities to be 75% full by 1 September.

The next goals are for stock levels to be at 85% by 1 October and 95% the following month.

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Mr Mueller told the news website t-online: “I don’t expect we will achieve the next storage targets as quickly as the first one.

Reaching the 85% target by autumn was “not impossible, but very ambitious”, especially if heating was already being used, he said.

He added: “We fall short of an average level of 95% by 1 November in all our projections.

“There’s hardly a chance of achieving that because some storage sites started at a very low level.”

Mr Mueller said Germans should save gas as they face potential problems for a couple of years.

He went on: “It’s not just about one winter, it’s about at least two and the next winter could be even tougher.

“It’s not just about one winter but rather at least two. And the second winter could be even harder.

“We’ve got to save a lot of gas for at least another year.

“To put it clearly: it’s going to be at least two stressful winters.”

Mr Mueller pointed out that shortages in the coming winter were “probable” in some regions.

“The shortfalls will probably be temporary at first and then could stop or return repeatedly,” he said, which may see gas having to be transported into affected areas.

Household energy bills in Germany are set to soar this winter, while energy shortfalls threaten to hinder economic growth.

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