Putin the new tsar

• The International Criminal Court’s war crimes arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin could weaken Russia’s influence in Africa.
• Like Russia, the United States is attempting to strengthen its relationship with African nations.
  
• Putin’s arrest warrant has the potential to boost China’s appeal to Africa.
• African leaders could face scrutiny if they decide to attend a summit in Russia this summer.

The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) war crimes arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin has numerous potential consequences, including Russia potentially losing valuable ground in the wooing of Africa.

“The ICC warrant adds to the weakening of Russian influence globally and in Africa,” Jonathan Katz, the director of democracy initiatives and a senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Newsweek .

In recent months, both the United States and Russia have increased their efforts to court African nations . Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Mali, Mauritania and Sudan at the beginning of February, after a previous trip that ended only days earlier found him in Angola, Eswatini, Eritrea and South Africa. During his time on the continent, Lavrov touted Russia’s “good neighborly relations” with Africa.

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled to be in Ghana on March 26 before heading to Tanzania and Zambia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Ethiopia and Niger in the middle of March, following Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ‘s 10-day trip to Africa in January.

As for Putin, he delivered a televised address on March 20 to representatives from African nations and said relations with Africa were a “priority” for Russia. But what he may not be able to do—thanks to the ICC’s arrest warrant—is actually visit Africa, which President Joe Biden is expected to do later this year.

The question of whether or not to arrest Putin has already been addressed by some world leaders. Numerous European officials have said they would honor the ICC warrant—which accuses Putin of deporting Ukrainian children to Russia—and detain him if he entered their territories.

South Africa, which has maintained a neutral stance on the Ukraine war, is publicly struggling with such a decision. The country is hosting August’s BRICS summit, which will also be attended by Brazil, Russia, India and China, and Putin was expected to attend. On March 24, South Africa’s international relations and cooperation minister, Naledi Pandor, said his government had sought legal advice regarding the warrant should Putin visit.

Katz said the warrant “certainly has an impact on Putin diplomatically. The charge against him—in essence, kidnapping children—is egregious, and any world leader that is willing to welcome Mr. Putin is reprehensible.”

He continued: “There’s a real hope that governments that are parties to the ICC will arrest Mr. Putin if he steps foot in another country.”

Thirty-three African countries were signatories to the Rome Statute that established the ICC, including South Africa.

During his March 20 address, Putin vowed to continue supplying Africa with grain if Russia drops its agreement with Ukraine to allow exports from Black Sea ports. He even offered free grain to African countries in need should the deal fall apart. That gesture was an example of the importance Russia has placed on Africa, where Moscow also exports arms and the paramilitary Wagner Group has lucrative mining projects.

Though Putin has increased efforts to build on his relationships in Africa, Russia has enjoyed favor on the continent going back to the days of the Soviet Union. As a result, many African nations have stayed neutral on the Ukraine war.

The Biden administration would like to temper Russia’s influence in Africa since the U.S., as well as China, is said to want minerals that can be used for green energy and they are plentiful in Africa.

In fact, Putin should also be worrying about how the warrant could further boost China’s appeal to Africa, according to University of New Hampshire political science professor Lawrence Reardon.

“The question is whether African states need Russia,” he told Newsweek . “Yes, Russia has some wheat and petroleum. But often the African countries are looking at foreign investment, which is why the Chinese have become the ‘lenders of first resort’ to many African states via its Belt and Road Initiative.” (That initiative is China’s global infrastructure development strategy to invest in countries around the world.)

Hanna Notte, a senior research associate at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, told Newsweek that Russia could still carry out many of its goals in Africa without Putin ever visiting. She noted the diplomatic success of Lavrov’s visit, as well as Moscow’s recent Russia-Africa conference.

“In short, Russia is really stepping up its game in Africa to secure a foothold, and this effort does not stand or fall with Putin’s ability to visit the continent,” she said.

If he were to travel outside of Russia, Putin would have some key assurances that many world leaders don’t have, according to David Silbey, an associate professor of history at Cornell and director of teaching and learning at Cornell in Washington.

“Putin’s the head of a nuclear-armed power and travels with substantial security,” Silbey told Newsweek . “Arresting him in a foreign country would potentially be an act of war, and I’m not sure that any country would be willing to risk that, outside—maybe—of the United States.

Even so, Silbey called the ICC’s warrant “one more turn of the screw on Putin.”

Putin may still not take the risk of going abroad, at least not for the time being. Russian independent news outlet Meduza reported on March 21 that he had planned on traveling to Latin American and African countries in the lead-up to his 2024 presidential election campaign. Meduza’s sources said the Kremlin canceled those plans in light of the ICC warrant.

Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, told Newsweek that Putin will likely be safely reelected without taking a trip to Africa or Latin America.

Katz said that “while Putin is definitely appreciative about how many African and Latin American governments have refused to side with the West on Ukraine, it’s not as if these governments are willing and able to meaningfully help Moscow in its war on Ukraine sufficiently to make it worth Putin’s while to visit them.”

Joseph Siegle, director of research at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, told Newsweek that while it’s still too early to tell, he doesn’t believe the ICC arrest warrant will immediately affect Russia’s efforts to expand its influence in Africa

“Much of this influence has been gained via irregular means—propping up unpopular autocratic regimes, disinformation, deployment of Wagner Group forces, election interference and opaque arms-for-resources deals,” Siegle said. “The African regimes that have welcomed this sort of irregular Russian support are likely to continue to do so, despite the arrest warrant.”

A big test for how Russia’s relations with Africa were affected by the ICC’s action will be to see which African leaders attend the Russia-Africa summit, which is set to take place in St. Petersburg in July, according to Siegle.

“This was going to be a big public relations opportunity for Russia to show that it is not a pariah and still maintains many partners who are unbothered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Siegle said. “Now that Putin has an arrest warrant out on him, the political and reputational costs for African leaders who make the trip to St. Petersburg for an audience with Putin will be much higher.”

For now, though, Russia will likely continue working “to deepen its ties to Africa” in a “quest to avoid isolation,” Siegle said.

Der Westen hat gelassen auf die Ankündigung von Russlands Präsident Wladimir Putin reagiert, im Nachbarland Belarus taktische Atomwaffen zu stationieren. Die Nato erklärte in Brüssel, daraus ergebe sich mit Blick auf die eigenen Atomwaffen kein Handlungsbedarf. Die deutsche Regierung warf Putin einen neuen Versuch der “nuklearen Einschüchterung” vor.

Die Ukraine, gegen die Russland seit mehr als einem Jahr einen Angriffskrieg führt, forderte eine sofortige Sondersitzung des UN-Sicherheitsrats in New York.

Der EU-Außenbeauftragte Josep Borrell erklärte, die EU sei für den Fall der Stationierung von Atomwaffen zu weiteren Sanktionen bereit. Belarus könne dies jedoch noch stoppen.

Er warnte Belarus davor, russische Atomwaffen zu stationieren.

Der belarussische Führer Alexander Lukaschenko ist von Putin abhängig und hatte schon vor dem Krieg die Stationierung solcher Waffen gefordert. Die Ausbildung an den taktischen Atomwaffen in Belarus soll nach Putins Worten im nächsten Monat beginnen. Die Depots für die Atomraketen sollen dann im Juli fertig sein.

Putin kündigte auch an, angesichts der westlichen Panzerlieferungen für die Ukraine die eigene Panzerproduktion auszubauen.

China renewed calls for de-escalation in Ukraine on Monday and reminded Russia of its recent opposition to nuclear war days after President Vladimir Putin announced plans to deploy strategic arms in neighboring Belarus.

Putin told state television on Saturday that a storage depot for tactical nuclear weapons was being built at Minsk’s request and would be completed by July. He didn’t say whether the Russian weapons would be transferred to the country in the same month.

His comments—framed as a response to a similar posture adopted by the United States—appeared to undermine a position he took with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping just days earlier, when the two leaders reaffirmed their opposition to nuclear war and jointly opposed the deployment of nuclear weapons abroad during the latter’s high-profile state visit to Moscow.

“In January last year, the leaders of the five nuclear-weapon states issued a joint statement noting that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, and stressed that war between nuclear-weapon states should be avoided and strategic risks reduced,” Mao Ning, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, said at a regular press briefing.

“Under the current circumstances, all sides should focus on diplomatic efforts for a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis and work together for de-escalation,” said Mao.

In the Russia-1 TV broadcast, Putin preemptively dismissed concerns that his plans would violate Russia’s nonproliferation obligations. Russia would not be giving strategic arms to Belarus , he said; instead, it would be deploying the weapons in an allied territory and transferring the equipment and know-how to use them.

Minsk said last month that it was autonomously operating Moscow-supplied nuclear-capable Iskander missile launch systems, which can reach deep into neighboring Ukraine and NATO member Poland.

“There is nothing unusual here either. Firstly, the United States has been doing this for decades. They have long deployed their tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of their allied countries,” said Putin. It would be Russia ‘s first deployment of nuclear weapons beyond its borders since the 1990s.

Three days before his state media appearance, Putin and Xi signed a lengthy joint communique to deepen the strategic alignment between their two countries. In the document, the leaders reaffirmed the January 2022 statement against nuclear war , which was signed by all of the “P5″—the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—just weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“All nuclear-weapon states should refrain from deploying nuclear weapons abroad and withdraw nuclear weapons deployed abroad,” Putin and Xi agreed .

“The two sides reaffirmed that the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons is the cornerstone of the international nuclear disarmament and nuclear nonproliferation system,” they said. “The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to the treaty and will continue to work together to maintain and strengthen the treaty and maintain world peace and security.”

The line was followed immediately by their shared opposition to AUKUS, the trilateral pact that will see the U.S. and the United Kingdom jointly supply the hardware for Australia’s first nuclear-powered submarine fleet by early next decade, as well as the technology for Canberra to deliver its own silent boats in the decade after that.

After it became clear that Russia’s war in Ukraine would be a protracted conflict, Western leaders began to argue that China could help dissuade the Kremlin from using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. In successive meetings with Xi late last year, European officials saw the Chinese president’s willingness to oppose nuclear war as a positive sign, despite Putin’s occasional saber-rattling.

Immediately after Xi’s state visit to Russia, Josep Borrell, the European Union ‘s foreign policy chief, told reporters that the trip “reduces the risk of nuclear war.” Beijing made its opposition “very, very clear” to Moscow, he said.

On Sunday, Borrell tweeted: “Belarus hosting Russian nuclear weapons would mean an irresponsible escalation and threat to European security. Belarus can still stop it, it is their choice. The EU stands ready to respond with further sanctions.”

Kyiv has asked the U.N. Security Council to meet over Putin’s announcement. The remaining members of the P5 had an obligation “to counter the nuclear threat from the Kremlin,” Ukraine’s foreign ministry said.

Washington’s confidence in Putin’s level of self-restraint was brought lower in February after he decided to halt Russia’s participation in New START, the last remaining major arms control treaty. But it has responded cautiously to the news out of Moscow.

“We have not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture, nor any indications Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon,” State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel told Newsweek on Sunday in a written statement.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin is again reverting to his most effective card as his troops struggle to make significant headway on the devastated frontlines of Ukraine and as Kyiv prepares to turn its new Western weapons against Moscow’s occupying forces.

The Russian president announced this weekend that Moscow would build storage facilities for tactical nuclear weapons —which are designed with a smaller yield and intended for battlefield rather than strategic use—in Belarus and train Belarusian pilots to deliver the warheads from their own Su-24 aircraft.

Putin gave no indication of when the warheads might be sent and how many would be deployed, though he said he expected the necessary storage facility to be completed by July 1. The declaration touched off an international media furor, though officials in the U.S. and elsewhere were more stoic.

“We have not seen any indication he’s made good on this pledge or moved any nuclear weapons around,” National Security Spokesperson John Kirby told CBS .

“We’ve, in fact, seen no indication he has any intention to use nuclear weapons—period—inside Ukraine,” Kirby said. “Obviously, we would agree that no nuclear war should be fought, no nuclear war could be won and clearly that would cross a major threshold.”

Putin is still setting the media agenda, though his apparent intention to put nuclear weapons in Belarus might be a sign of insecurity rather than confidence.

“This is escalation dominance, Putin-style,” Mark Voyger—a former special adviser for Russian and Eurasian affairs to then-commander of the U.S. Army Europe General Ben Hodges—told Newsweek . “He’s trying to achieve a strategic victory of sorts.”

Nuclear Saber Rattling

Oleg Ignatov, the Crisis Group’s senior Russia analyst, concurred, telling Newsweek that Putin’s latest nuclear threat is in keeping with his long-established approach.

“Putin’s policy is manageable escalation,” Ignatov said. “He wants to escalate; he wants to show that he’s ready to escalate more than the West and to make the situation less politically comfortable. It doesn’t mean that he’s going to attack.”

Alex Kokcharov, a risk analyst specializing in Russia and Ukraine, told Newsweek that the weekend announcement “doesn’t mean that the nuclear weapons will necessarily be deployed,” only that the infrastructure to base them in and launch them from Belarus is being put in place.

“I think this is mostly politically motivated, and it indicates that Russia is not doing particularly well on the battlefield,” Kokcharov said. “They are going back to nuclear saber rattling in order to discourage European countries from supporting Ukraine. I don’t think it will work.

“If we look at the last year, Russia was ramping up their nuclear rhetoric when they were not doing particularly well on the battlefield. There was the first spike of these Russian nuclear threats in September, when the Kharkiv counteroffensive was taking place. And then another round was in late October, early November, when the Kherson operation was taking place.”

Still, experts told Newsweek that the expansion of Moscow’s nuclear umbrella cannot be ignored.

“The potential is that NATO would be distracted somewhat by this threat,” said Voyger, who is a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Analysis and professor at the American University of Kyiv. “I’m not saying you will work to help Russia win, but it can definitely help them distract the West in a certain way.

“We have to be mindful of all these movements of the Russian leadership, even if they don’t seem directly related to certain tactical situations on the ground.”

Tactical nuclear arms are one area in which Moscow enjoys an edge over its Western rivals, Ignatov said.

“Russia has an advantage in tactical nuclear missiles, because the Western countries have less,” he said. “And the Russians have a lot of them.”

The Lukashenko Factor

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is still trying to somewhat straddle the growing East-West divide. Lukashenko has allowed Belarusian territory to be used to attack Ukraine through the full-scale invasion, including as a jumping-off point for the ill-fated drive toward Kyiv last spring, not long after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Lukashenko is beholden to Putin because of a long-standing economic reliance on Russia but also because the Kremlin effectively saved his regime from being toppled by fierce pro-democracy protests in 2020.

Minsk has so far kept its own troops out of the war, though Moscow is believed to be pushing Lukashenko and his officials to commit fully to the quagmire in Ukraine.

“Lukashenko has always played this game where he is siding with Russia, but then also is trying not to fully follow direction from Moscow, with the hope that there would then be some sort of ability for him to negotiate with the West, and especially with the European Union ,” Viktorija Starych-Samuoliene, the co-founder of the British Council on Geostrategy, told Newsweek .

“He’s in a tough spot,” Starych-Samuoliene said, noting that the U.S. applied additional sanctions to Lukashenko and his allies over the weekend, while the EU is threatening another round of measures related to Minsk’s acceptance of Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

“It’s becoming increasingly difficult for him to resist what the Kremlin tells him,” Starych-Samuoliene said. “This might be a sign that unfortunately, he is now fully following what he’s being told.”

The trajectory appears grim for Belarus’s pro-democracy movement. Its exiled leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, wrote on Twitter that the agreement is “further subjugating Belarus” to Russian interests.

“Belarus is getting more and more dependent on Putin, and if there are Russian nuclear weapons there, it means that cooperation between the Russian military and Belarusian military will grow,” Ignatov said. “And cooperation, for the Russians, means more control.

“Before 2021, the Russian military presence in Belarus was quite limited. And now it’s a totally different picture.”

The decision puts Belarus in the direct firing line if the unthinkable— Russia using nuclear weapons— does happen, Voyger warned.

“If anything happens, it will be Belarus that will burn, and not Russia proper,” he said.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry via email for comment.