Russia ukraine war

The grueling war in Ukraine could accidentally escalate in three scenarios, according to a new report, as the conflict enters its 20th month with few signs of ending.

Several situations involving NATO countries and Russia could trigger a significant escalation of the war, a new report from the RAND Corporation has argued, namely a future Russian strike on Ukrainian territory that kills NATO officials, operations against U.S. military equipment that claim U.S. lives, or Moscow misinterpreting NATO actions as a sign of intervention in Ukraine, the U.S.-based non-profit think tank has said.

Countries supporting Ukraine and those aiding Russia’s war effort have balked at the prospect of escalating the conflict, which could mean the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons or war spreading to neighboring nations in Eastern Europe.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in mid-July that increases in NATO military aid for Ukraine meant that “World War III is getting closer,” while Ukraine has said a wider conflic t in Europe would fall on NATO should it fail to pull through with military aid for Kyiv.

NATO has promised Ukraine future membership of the alliance, but should this occur while the war is still being fought, the alliance would be obligated to protect Ukraine with the full might of its power under Article 5. This provision views an attack on one member state as an attack on all, demanding a response from the alliance, and makes the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO before the end of the war very unlikely.

But NATO countries building up higher-readiness forces and long-range strike capabilities in close proximity to Russian territory, along with talk of Ukraine quickly joining the alliance, “could convince Moscow that it is on a slippery slope to direct NATO intervention,” the RAND report said. While the Kremlin could then pursue a ceasefire agreement, Russian President Vladimir Putin could also opt to pre-emptively attack NATO targets to “degrade NATO capabilities or deter a future intervention by underlining Russia’s willingness to bring the war directly to NATO countries,” according to the report. NATO could then either be deterred, or look to retaliate through military action, the analysts argued.

And should a Russian strike on Ukrainian territory kill NATO officials—even unintentionally—this could also mean increased pressure on the alliance to attack Russia. Again, Russia could opt to pre-empt the alliance’s response and strike first, the report suggested.

Newsweek has contacted NATO for comment.

The deaths of U.S. military personnel in or around the Black Sea could also precipitate a crisis, the report added. The Black Sea, southern mainland Ukraine and the annexed Crimean peninsula have increasingly become hot spots for Russian missile strikes and Ukrainian operations in recent months.

If “aggressive Russian maneuvers” against a crewed U.S. surveillance aircraft led to U.S. deaths, U.S. politicians “would face pressure to respond, possibly by targeting the Russian aircraft or supporting base involved,” the RAND report theorized.

“Russia may view any U.S. response strike as highly escalatory, leading Putin to consider retaliatory strikes,” it concluded.

The possibility of the conflict escalating will likely remain throughout the war, meaning that the safeguards against escalation, like diplomatic communications with Russia, are needed “to help disrupt such spirals,” the think tank said.

The U.S. has sought throughout to position itself away from direct confrontation with Russia, despite rhetoric from Moscow’s most senior officials suggesting the Kremlin is pitted against Washington.

But the U.S. “is not at war with Russia, nor do we seek a war between NATO and Russia,” a Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek earlier in September, adding that Russia could de-escalate the war “right now by withdrawing its forces from Ukraine.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has committed to a large increase in spending for the war in Ukraine through 2024 despite a top Kremlin official recently hinting Moscow may be willing to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Thursday reported that a new document from Russia’s Ministry of Finance shows Moscow will increase defense spending for the country by almost 70 percent in 2024. Bloomberg first reported on the same figures last week when a draft proposal for Russia’s defense spending was released.

The deep investment in the war budget comes after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently indicated Russia would honor Ukraine’s borders prior to Putin’s invasion that began in February 2022 if Kyiv agrees to one major condition.

During a press conference at the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday, Lavrov suggested Russia would recognize Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty based on a decades-old declaration if Kyiv agreed to a commitment of remaining “a non-aligned country and would not enter into any military alliances.”

The comment seemingly referenced Ukraine’s bid to join NATO , which Putin not only opposes but has also cited the possible expansion of NATO on Russia’s borders as one of his justifications for starting the war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and members of his administration have not publicly addressed Lavrov’s comments, but Zelensky has continued his call for allies to provide his troops with more weapons following his trip to the United States and Canada.

Putin himself has also not broached the subject of a possible ceasefire, and the Russian Finance Ministry’s new document indicates he’s prepared to invest deeply through 2024. According to the AFP’s analysis, the document shows defense spending would increase by over 68 percent year-on-year to almost 10.8 trillion rubles ($111.15 billion). This figure would account for around 6 percent of Russia’s GDP.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Finance via email for comment.

According to the AFP’s calculations, Russia’s defense spending budget for 2024 will be roughly three times more than the money allotted for education, environmental protection and healthcare spending combined.

The document also indicates Putin is not yet ready to relinquish his illegitimate claim of four Ukrainian regions he annexed to Russia last year, as the report said “integrating” the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts is one of the finance agency’s goals next year.

If Lavrov’s statement about recognizing Ukraine’s previous maps is to be believed, then Russia would theoretically have to give up its claim to the four territories.

Meanwhile, Russia’s economy has suffered during the war as Putin increased military spending and Western sanctions took hold. After the ruble hit a 17-month low against the U.S. dollar, Russia’s Central Bank raised interest rates last month in an attempt to address concerns about the country’s currency and raising inflation.

A Russian non-profit group is crowdfunding for sailors who were wounded in a Ukrainian missile strike on a submarine belonging to Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet earlier this month.

The St. Petersburg Club of Submariners and Navy Veterans posted a public appeal asking for donations to assist the crew members of the Rostov-on-Don Russian cruise missile carrier who were injured in the September 13 strike.

Photos published by the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) on September 18 showed a gaping hole in the hull of the submarine , which was damaged in a missile attack on the Sevastopol Shipyard in annexed Crimea.

Officials didn’t say at the time whether there were casualties.

But the St. Petersburg Club of Submariners and Navy Veterans said in a post on Thursday that “there were casualties among the crew members who needed our help.”

“The Council of the Club of Submariners and Navy Veterans decided to begin collecting charitable funds. We will be grateful to everyone who is ready to provide real help,” it said.

The club said that as of 2 p.m. local time on Thursday, it had received 945,000 rubles ($9,750).

The council was formed in 1994 by several retired submariners as an independent, non-profit, voluntary society, which seeks to provide social assistance to active and retired naval officers and their families.

The crowdfunding initiative raises questions about payouts Russian President Vladimir Putin promised he would provide injured servicemen in the war.

A week into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin pledged that injured men could claim compensation of three million rubles ($50,000 at the time), saying in March 2022 that it’s “our duty to support the families of our fallen and injured war comrades.”

But in April 2022, Russia’s defense ministry published a statement on its website saying that to be eligible for compensation, injuries sustained needed to be among those on an official list—a move that came as reports emerged that Russia was sustaining heavy casualties in battle.

Newsweek has contacted Russia’s Defense Ministry for comment via email.

In March, state-run media outlet RIA Novosti appeared to go off-message when it cited human rights activists as sounding the alarm over Putin’s presidential decree differing from the official list published by the defense ministry weeks later.

The outlet published a story titled “We didn’t expect this,” which featured interviews with frustrated soldiers who were injured while fighting in the war in Ukraine and didn’t receive the compensation promised by Putin.

Russia’s loss of the Rostov-on-Don removes one of the Black Sea Fleet’s four cruise-missile capable submarines, which have played a major role in striking Ukraine and projecting Russian power across the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean.

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Battlefield footage has emerged of the apparent destruction of a Russian anti-tank system in northeastern Ukraine, an area that has been a hotspot of fighting in recent months as Russian forces push against Ukrainian defenders seeking a fresh breakthrough.

The footage, part of which was initially published by the Russianocontext Telegram channel last week, was purportedly filmed in March 2023 in the Luhansk Oblast settlement of Raihorodka, around 9 miles west of the strategic town of Svatove . The Telegram channel posted additional footage of the incident on Wednesday.

The videos open on what appears to be a stationary Russian Shturm-S anti-tank system—a Soviet-era SACLOS radio-guided missile system mounted on an armored chassis—which has the NATO reporting name “AT-6 Spiral.” The footage shows a purported Ukrainian anti-tank guided missile flying towards the left-hand side of the armored vehicle before exploding.

Russianocontext published two videos of the impact, one shot by troops some distance from the Russian system, and another filmed by soldiers inside the “AT-6 Spiral” as it was hit and penetrated by the Ukrainian missile. It is unclear whether those inside the vehicle—some of whom in the video can be heard yelling to each other after the impact—survived.

Newsweek could not independently verify the footage and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

The video was reportedly shot in March, while Russian forces were on the offensive across much of the eastern front. The heaviest fighting at that time was around the Bakhmut city of Donetsk, eventually taken—though entirely destroyed—by Russian troops led by Wagner Group mercenaries in May.

Heavy fighting was also underway in northeastern Luhansk and Kharkiv regions at that time, with Russian forces pushing on the Kreminna-Kupiansk axis in the hope of recapturing areas freed by Ukraine’s Kharkiv counteroffensive operation in fall 2022.

The videos showing the AT-6 Spiral’s destruction were filmed close to the frontline roughly equidistant between Kreminna and Kupiansk, the Russianocontext channel said.

Six months later, Russian forces are again attacking the Kreminna-Kupiansk axis as summer draws to a close.

The Russian offensive in this region has been interpreted by military analysts as an effort to distract attention and draw reinforcements from Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive operation in southeastern Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. Kyiv’s troops have wrought several small gaps in Russia’s fortified defensive lines .

Ukrainian units—backed by Western heavy and light armor—are now trying to widen their offensive footholds and push deeper into Russia’s defense-in-depth network, known as the “Surovikin Line” and named after former invasion commander General Sergei Surovikin who oversaw its construction.