Sam and max devils playhouse

Take a deep breath, Lakers fans. I know all of this feels familiar. An undrafted guard has emerged as a key rotation player. He is thriving as the Lakers deal with major injuries elsewhere on the roster. His presence is keeping a potentially doomed season afloat. He’s setting himself up for a major payday in the process. The Lakers lost Alex Caruso when this happened two years ago. Here’s the good news: the Lakers can legally match any offer another team makes Austin Reaves as a restricted free agent this offseason. If they want to keep him, it will be well within their power to do so.

Until a few weeks ago, doing so seemed like it would be a relatively affordable endeavor. While the Lakers could’ve locked Reaves up for two more years at close to a minimum salary had they managed their cap sheet a bit more effectively in 2021, the advantage of letting him reach restricted free agency in 2023 was that it effectively capped what the Lakers could offer him at the maximum amount allowable by the Early Bird Rights they’ve gained by having him on the team for two years. As Spotrac’s Keith Smith laid out in his excellent piece on Reaves’ new contract, that worked out to roughly $51 million over four years. He would make roughly $14.1 million in the final year of such a contract, a figure that’s probably lower than what he is worth now .

In other words, this would’ve been a bargain: a four-year commitment to an established 24-year-old with no significant history of injuries in a salary environment expected to see significant cap growth. No team is foolish enough to turn down that sort of opportunity. Not even the one that lost Caruso.

Of course, that relied on the idea that, from a value standpoint, Reaves was relatively similar to Caruso. They are very different players, but they represented similar things to the Lakers. For the most part, neither were particularly impressive box score players. Their impact was felt in advanced metrics and on-off numbers. Good things happened when Caruso and Reaves were on the floor. The progression felt somewhat similar: undrafted youngster grows into solid role player and earns solid role player money.

The last few weeks have created an enviable problem for the Lakers. Reaves is becoming something more than just a solid role player. While it’s far too early start speculating about stardom, Reaves is quietly growing into one of the most efficient offensive guards in the NBA .

He might have just saved the Lakers’ season on Sunday when his 35 points held off an Orlando Magic comeback and preserved a desperately needed victory. He’s averaging 15.4 points per game since the Lakers traded Russell Westbrook on a preposterous 58-43-81 shooting line that has never been matched by a 15-point scorer over a full season. In the month of March, he has attempted 77 total free throws. That is more than DeMar DeRozan (67), James Harden (58) and Trae Young (53).

And these aren’t role player passes. These are high-end starting point guard passes… and they all come from a single half of a single game.

It’s too early to say where this is going, but it hardly matters because Reaves scales up or down so seamlessly. He’s spent the first two years of his career playing with Westbrook and LeBron James . He’s perfectly comfortable functioning in a catch-and-shoot capacity when necessary. But stick him Dennis Schroder and D’Angelo Russell instead and he turns into this higher-usage free-throw merchant and floor general. Virtually every metric praises his defense, and the eye test supports him there. Reaves was far more advanced than most rookies in terms of footwork and floor-navigation a year ago, but lacked the physical strength to hold his own in the post or fight through screens. He’s bulked up this season, and at 24, he still has room for both literal and figurative growth. Every team in the NBA wants an Austin Reaves.

And this is where things get complicated for the Lakers, because while they can offer Reaves only the Early Bird max (which starts at 105 percent of the average player’s salary), other teams have no such constraint. So long as they have the cap space to do so, they can offer Reaves an extra $29 million on top of the $51 million the Lakers are free to give him for a total of $80 million over four years.

Once again, Lakers fans, take a deep breath. This does not mean the Lakers will be unable to retain Reaves. The NBA offers a workaround, but it’s a risky one. In 2002, the Washington Wizards used their cap space to offer then-restricted free agent Gilbert Arenas a six-year, $60 million contract that exceeded Golden State’s Early Bird Rights. This meant that they legally could not match the offer, and were forced to watch Arenas grow into an All-Star with the Wizards. Soon after, the NBA changed the rules to ensure that never happened again. This is the infamous Gilbert Arenas Provision.

Players limited by the Arenas provision, like Reaves, cannot make more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception in the first year of a new deal. Their second-year salary on such a contract would see only a 5% increase in salary. But years three and four? They can go all the way up to the max. The signing team can use its cap space to structure the cap hits as the average annual salary in each of the four years. But the Lakers don’t have cap space, and would therefore be stuck with that backloaded structure.  Here’s what a maximum-salary Arenas Provision deal would look like to the Lakers, as projected by Smith.

You could argue that this salary structure actually benefits the Lakers financially, at least compared to paying Reaves a flat $20 million per year. Their roster is currently constructed to operate above the cap, which will mean re-signing their own players and paying the luxury tax for the fourth consecutive season. That would subject them to the repeater tax, which will make limiting next year’s team salary paramount.

By backloading the deal, the Lakers would give themselves two years to sort out their finances ahead of Reaves’ jump. There are two other factors worth watching here: the new CBA (which is being negotiated as we speak) and the new media rights deal (which is expected to kick in for the 2025-26 season). The former could change the luxury-tax rules in ways that either help or hurt the Lakers. The latter could increase the cap by so much that an enormous salary jump for Reaves just isn’t that bothersome.

But remember, the Lakers are not the Warriors or the Clippers . Even though they outspend most of their competition, they operate within a budget, and that’s what makes this situation so tricky for the Lakers: they literally can’t set a budget for the 2025-26 campaign right now because they don’t currently have a single player under contract for that season. In fact, only three Lakers have fully guaranteed contracts for next season: James, Anthony Davis and Max Christie .

The Lakers will have a better idea of their outlook by this summer, when, at the very least, they will have to make long-term decisions on D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura . But between the summer of 2023 and the 2024 offseason, they’ll also need to make decisions on Christie and whoever they retain among the non-guaranteed group of Malik Beasley , Mo Bamba and Jarred Vanderbilt . And, of course, James and Davis.

Are James and Davis still earning max money in 2026? Does Russell expect to remain a $30 million player in his next deal, and does he want a long-term pact or short-term flexibility? How much does the idea of a possible cap spike windfall factor into negotiations for players like Hachimura, Vanderbilt and Bamba, who have thus far earned limited salaries in their careers and may want to see if 2025 free agency looks anything like 2016 once did? The Lakers still have draft picks to dangle in trade discussions this summer.  There might be another meaningful player or two to consider here. For all we know, the Lakers will be entering the 2025-26 season having paid the luxury tax in the previous five seasons and the repeater tax in the last two of them.

A team with the revenue the Lakers have at their disposal probably shouldn’t fret over that… but… well… that was true in 2021 as well and we all saw how that went for Caruso. The market is going to be a bit more limited this time around. Any team hoping to throw this sort of offer at Reaves would need at least $20 million in cap space, and according to Smith’s most recent projections , only eight teams fit the bill right now: Houston, Utah, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Detroit, Indiana, Sacramento and Orlando. The Rockets , Kings , Pacers and Pistons probably have too much invested in guards to justify this sort of expense.

But the Magic have only specialists in their backcourt and would absolutely love a player as balanced as Reaves. The Jazz have only two guards under guaranteed contracts for next season in Collin Sexton and Ochai Agbaji . The Thunder aren’t positionally picky and will gladly take a bit more ball-handling and defensive help. Gregg Popovich has no love for the Lakers, and could really use an upgrade on Tre Jones at point guard even if he did. More cap space teams could emerge in the coming months. There are going to be suitors here.

Reaves may not quite reach his $80 million max, but he’s playing himself out of the $51 million deal the Lakers surely hoped to give him this offseason. No matter where the final number falls, it’s almost certainly going to force the Lakers into a backloaded contract, which will, in turn, enforce upon them an uneasy degree of financial uncertainty. Whatever the price winds up being, the Lakers should pay it. But after what happened to Caruso, their front office has lost the benefit of the doubt on such matters. Fans will be uneasy until the ink dries on his next contract.

Every year we are reminded with absolutely zero uncertainty the NFL is ~a quarterback league~. This is a non-negotiable take. You have or you have not. And even when you have, sometimes it’s not enough. Just ask the Raiders , who shuffled Derek Carr into free agency a year into a newly signed contract extension. Teams routinely pay outrageous prices in terms of current and future draft capital to move up and take a flier on an unknown commodity in the draft.

And yet, when Lamar Jackson became available for any NFL team via Baltimore placing the non-exclusive franchise tag on their starting quarterback … not one NFL team is interested?

This is a former MVP we’re talking about, one of the most electric athletes in all of professional sports, a legitimate franchise quarterback who turned 26 years old in January.

We’ve never seen a case of a quarterback being dangled like this for all of the quarterback-needy NFL to come after him. This is a cutthroat league where the margins are thin and having a quarterback separates you, not just in the ability to pursue a Super Bowl , but also in fan interest, both locally and nationally.

The Carolina Panthers are largely irrelevant on a national stage. The Panthers with Lamar Freaking Jackson? That’s a team getting multiple prime-time games every year and the immediate favorite to win the NFC South. The exact same case could be made for the Atlanta Falcons . And, my goodness, Lamar recreating Vick 2.0 in some red, white and black unis would be incredible.

We’ll be denied that aesthetic, however, because Atlanta, much like Carolina — along with seemingly every other quarterback-needy team in the NFL — just isn’t interested in attempting to even pursue Jackson. They’re not even going to check in and see what Jackson might want.

The complete lack of interest in Jackson is even wilder than Jackson being opened up to the entire league for negotiation. And the reason seems painfully obvious: NFL owners are adamant about squashing out the idea of quarterbacks getting fully guaranteed contracts.

Jackson’s predicament was created when the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson and gave him a guaranteed $230 million deal, despite Watson facing double-digit accusations of off-field sexual misconduct. As our own Jason La Canfora reported in March 2022, the deal Cleveland owner Jimmy Haslam gave Watson drew the ire of basically every other NFL owner .

The Browns weren’t really in on Watson until Haslam was willing to break rank — and precedent — and give Watson a deal no one else in the league was willing to offer up.

Watson hadn’t played football in well over a year, required multiple high draft picks to acquire, wanted a monster contract extension and was dealing with unprecedented off-field issues. Yet the Browns were in on him, as were the Falcons and Panthers according to plenty of reports.

Jackson is in the exact same spot, only he has been more productive, has a better injury history (Watson has multiple torn ACLs dating back to college), has an MVP and there’s no negotiation with the Ravens about the compensation if an offer sheet is signed.

Despite that, no less than five NFL teams very publicly leaked out their lack of interest in Jackson with an incredible quickness. Following the Ravens announcing on Twitter they were tagging Jackson at 3:02 p.m. ET on Tuesday, we got a flurry of reports from various reporters.

The Falcons — a consensus best landing spot for Jackson — let Dianni Russini of ESPN know they were out by 3:16 p.m. ET.

I can’t even pick out what I want for lunch that fast, much less make a franchise-altering decision. Jackson would THRIVE in Arthur Smith’s offense and make the Falcons immediately relevant, but sure. The Raiders quickly followed suit, letting it be known they were “unlikely” to chase after Jackson.

Acknowledging Mark Davis likely doesn’t have the liquidity to actually pay Jackson (more on that in a minute) and ignoring what his father would have done (trade for Jackson in a freaking heartbeat), I’d like to point out the only quarterback currently on the Raiders roster is Chase Garbers . I’d guess at least 50% of the people reading this can’t be 100% sure if I made that name up or not.

By 4:30 p.m. ET, the Panthers let it be known they weren’t likely in the Lamar Jackson business either.

David Tepper has been rejected multiple times in an attempt to trade for a franchise quarterback, including Watson, Matthew Stafford and — not even joking here — Carson Wentz . Lamar Jackson is on the block and he doesn’t even want to check in on what it might take to acquire him? Again, sure.

The Dolphins got the word out as well, citing their satisfaction at the QB position with Tua Tagovailoa .

This would be reasonable if there weren’t 1) medical concerns surrounding Tua’s future and 2) a persistent buzz about Tom Brady and the Dolphins constantly lingering.

Even Danny Snyder’s Washington Commanders don’t want in on the Jackson biz.

I’ve covered the NFL in some capacity for 15+ years. I’ve seen a lot of weird stuff, even if you just want to narrow it down to Tag Day. One time the Broncos lost Elvis Dumervil because they screwed up a fax to the league office. Never, ever have I seen an actual, legitimate franchise quarterback come available and have five-plus NFL teams *immediately* leak out their disinterest in him.

Either we’re all drastically undervaluing the concerns with Jackson or something else is afoot. So what are those concerns, exactly? Some of them are quite viable, but I’m mostly playing devil’s avocado in the interest of presenting both sides.

Draft picks

Giving up multiple first-round picks is not something NFL teams want to do. Two first-round picks for any NFL player is a fairly steep price, but it’s absolutely in line with what we’ve seen other franchise quarterbacks go for in the trade market recently. The Rams and Broncos gave up similar hauls for Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson . And this isn’t two firsts for a cost-controlled player you would get in the draft.

The contract

This is the big one here. Jackson, by all accounts, wants a fully guaranteed deal. The Ravens chose to let the market tell him what his value was and the market magically dried up! We won’t ever know what he might be willing to take because teams aren’t even floating out offer sheets. A fully guaranteed deal would require matching every dollar in escrow (an antiquated rule from a time when not every NFL owner had hundreds of millions of dollars), which is something even the wealthiest NFL owner doesn’t want to deal with (again, more on that in a second). If we’re talking max guarantees, that’s a potential problem with the salary cap, even though the salary cap more and more appears to clearly be a myth.

Lack of an agent

Jackson is representing himself. There’s nothing wrong with that and I applaud his entrepreneurship. But not having an agent makes it more difficult to get a deal done. Agents are incentivized — both in terms of their reputation and financials — to get a deal done. They’ve worked with most of these NFL teams before and can talk their clients into taking certain deals. Jackson is steadfast here. Good for him. It does make it tougher for NFL teams in negotiations.

Scheme/fit

Again, I’m just bringing up possible arguments, so don’t yell at me for this one. It is completely reasonable for some NFL coaches, front offices or owners to have concerns about fashioning an offense around Jackson’s particular skillset. I would tell anyone who makes that claim they’re a coward and any coach worth his salt could figure out how to make it work. Additionally, if a team doesn’t believe it’s a quarterback away and is in the middle of a rebuild, there’s a reasonable argument for not giving up the capital. Unfortunately, all of these teams have been aggressive in pursuing quarterbacks recently. What changed?!

Injuries

Jackson has only played in 12 games each of the past two years. He plays a style of football that, because of his running skillset, can justifiably be called concerning for his long-term health. He’s not built like Cam Newton or Josh Allen . If you wanted to tell yourself a story re: concerns for long-term health, you could do it. Maybe not a good story, but you could lie to yourself.

So …

What seems most likely: NFL owners want Watson’s deal with the Browns to quickly become an outlier and very much not the norm. The Bengals and Chargers are facing monster extensions for Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert . Those two owners aren’t Tepper or a Wal-Mart heir. The liquidity to put $250 million (give or take a few millies) in escrow over a five-year span isn’t easy, even for someone worth a billion dollars.

The franchise tag was designed by NFL owners to prevent key players from becoming available to the rest of the league, specifically quarterbacks and very specifically young quarterbacks at the end of their contracts. Restricting player movement was a hallmark of NFL dynasties for years, until Reggie White busted free agency open. You don’t see a player of this caliber hit the market. You just don’t!

The idea of Baltimore dangling Jackson to the entire league, and no one having ANY INTEREST WHATSOEVER, is just wild. A 26-year-old former MVP simply DOES NOT become available in the NFL with no interest from other teams.

And not just no interest but a very quick lack of interest from a host of teams who have been aggressively pursuing quarterback solutions for the past 3-5 years.

There’s a virtually zero percent chance of anything happening here. Good luck proving a bunch of NFL owners don’t want to acquire Lamar Jackson simply to suppress a rogue contract given to another player in a similar situation just a year ago. But that reality makes a lot more sense than the idea of no one even wanting to consider acquiring a 26-year-old former MVP.