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Europe breathes sigh of relief as Erdogan remains in power in Turkey

May 28, 2023 by www.telegraph.co.uk Leave a Comment

None of them would ever admit it but European leaders will be breathing a sigh of relief now that Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been re-elected .

The defeated candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu promised to turn Turkey back towards the West, if he ousted the old autocrat.

But there are few prime ministers or presidents who would be ecstatic at the prospect of welcoming Ankara back into the fold after two decades of Erdogan .

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban did not even wait for the official result before congratulating Mr Erdogan on an “unquestionable election victory”. Only Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani was quicker off the mark.

But Mr Orban, who has plenty of enemies of his own in Brussels, sees Mr Erdogan as an ally and role model.

Other European leaders were conspicuously slower, and are considerably less admiring of the Turkish president . The ambivalence is mutual.

There’s no question that Mr Erdogan has made himself a nuisance in Nato. He infuriated Alliance members by blocking Sweden from joining the Alliance over Stockholm’s supposed support for dissident Kurds.

Patience with Mr Erdogan was already strained after Turkey invaded Syria, which hurt relations with Washington and European capitals. Joe Biden has wanted Mr Erdogan gone for quite some time.

In 2019, the then-presidential candidate said the US should support the Turkish opposition “to take on and defeat Erdogan”. During this hard fought campaign, Mr Erdogan accused Washington of meddling in the elections.

Unlike most Nato members, Turkey has refused to hit Russia with Western-style sanctions for its illegal invasion of Ukraine. But it was the distasteful Mr Erdogan who struck a deal with Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to allow Ukraine to ship grain from its Black Sea ports.

No one else on the world stage can claim such a success, which makes Mr Erdogan a valuable mediator if and when the time comes to talk peace.

Mr Kilicdaroglu, who pledged to turn away from Russia if elected, could never match the president’s pull with Putin. Mr Erdogan dramatically increased the powers of the presidency after a failed coup against him in 2016.

Mr Kilicdaroglu pledged to reverse those reforms and return to a parliamentary democracy and rule of law far closer to Western European norms. But his plans to revive Turkey’s long-stalled accession process to the EU, would have been greeted with barely disguised horror in Fortress Europe.

Even simple visa liberalisation has proved elusive in a bloc where even mainstream politicians wade into the culture war over the “islamisation” of Europe’s “Judeo-Christian” culture.

EU diplomats suggested that Mr Kilicdaroglu would have soon found out Ankara was likely to get a very cool welcome.

Mr Erdogan has long since given up on Turkey joining the EU, having had his fingers burnt in the past when trying to revitalise an application first made in 1987.

That suits Brussels and its member states just fine. The European Union talks a good game about democratic values and human rights. But it had no problem paying Mr Erdogan huge sums to host Syrian refugees during the 2015 migrant crisis.

Turkey also agreed to take back migrants making illegal crossings of the Mediterranean in exchange for more cash.

Mr Erdogan may be impossible to like. But has made himself very useful.

With new mandate secured, Turkey’s Erdogan likely to continue engaging with both West and Russia

May 29, 2023 by www.denverpost.com Leave a Comment

By SUZAN FRASER and ZEYNEP BILGINSOY (Associated Press)

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — After securing a strong new mandate in a runoff presidential election, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan could temper some positions that have irritated his NATO allies. But observers predicted that the country’s longtime strongman leader is unlikely to depart from his policy of engaging with both Russia and the West.

Erdogan won reelection Sunday with more than 52% of the vote, extending his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade. He must now confront skyrocketing inflation that has fueled a cost-of-living crisis and rebuild in the aftermath of a devastating earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people and leveled entire cities.

After failing to secure victory outright in the first round of voting on May 14, Erdogan defeated opposition challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who had promised to put Turkey on a more democratic path and improve relations with the West.

A divisive populist and masterful orator who transformed Turkey’s presidency from a largely ceremonial role to a powerful office, Erdogan won in part due to the backing of conservative voters. They remain devoted to him for lifting Islam’s profile in Turkey, which was founded on secular principles, and raising the country’s influence in international politics while charting an independent course.

In the runup to the election, Erdogan held off approving Sweden’s entry into the NATO alliance — part of a Western effort to isolate Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. Erdogan accused Sweden of being too soft on groups Ankara considers to be terrorists, and a series of Quran-burning protests in Stockholm angered his religious support base — making his tough stance even more popular.

With his immediate political future now secure, Erdogan may be willing to lift his objection to Sweden’s membership, which must be unanimously approved. Turkey and Hungary are the only two countries in the alliance that have not ratified the bid.

“Turkey will likely signal it is open to some form of rapprochement, such as by encouraging parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO,” said Jay Truesdale, who heads the geopolitical risk consultancy, Veracity Worldwide.

But that doesn’t mean Erdogan plans to abandon his relationship with Russia, on which Turkey relies on for energy and tourism revenue.

“Erdogan has successfully maintained a multi-vector foreign policy, which has enabled him to have constructive relations with Russia, China, and countries throughout the Middle East, even if this has been to the detriment of Turkey’s alliances with the West,” said Truesdale.

That has often put Turkey at the center of major international conflicts and debates: helping to negotiate a deal to restart Ukrainian grain exports and avert global food shortages, intervening militarily in Syria’s civil war, engaging in controversial gas exploration in the Mediterranean, hosting millions of Syrians fleeing violence and then often using those refugees as leverage in negotiations with his European neighbors.

In a reflection of his global ambitions, Erdogan declared in his victory speech Sunday that, with the country marking its centennial this year, the world would see a “Turkish century.”

Erdogan’s tendency to play both sides — such as purchasing Russian-made military equipment and refusing to enforce sanctions against Moscow while also providing drones for Ukraine — has often irked his allies.

But it also often makes him indispensable, as evidenced by the western leaders who rushed to congratulate him, even as they remain concerned about his increasingly authoritarian turn — including crackdowns on free speech and rhetoric targeting the LGBTQ community.

U.S. President Joe Biden said in a message posted on Twitter, that he looks “forward to continuing to work together as NATO Allies on bilateral issues and shared global challenges.”

Washington ousted Turkey from the U.S.-led F-35 fighter jet program, after Erdogan government purchased Russia’s S-400 air defense system. Turkey is now seeking to purchase F-16 fighter jets.

French President Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, said his country and Turkey “have huge challenges to face together,” including a return to peace in Europe. “With President Erdogan … we will continue to move forward.”

And in a sign that he is also valued by the West’s adversary, Russian President Vladimir Putin attributed Erdogan’s victory to his “independent foreign policy.”

Those policies helped Erdogan maintain his popularity despite significant challenges at home, including an economy battered by high inflation and a devastating earthquake that led to criticism of his government. In his victory speech, Erdogan said rebuilding the quake-struck cities would be his priority.

Erdogan is also likely to press ahead with recent efforts to normalize relationships with countries of the Middle East after fallouts with several regional powers, including Israel, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Erdogan acknowledged in a recent television interview that certain Gulf States, that he did not name had given Turkey financial assistance that helped prop up the country’s economy.

Under intense domestic pressure to evict millions of Syrian refugees, Erdogan has also been trying to mend fences with Syrian President Bashar Assad — after years of backing opposition fighters seeking to depose him.

Erdogan’s government hopes that rapprochement with Assad can lead to the safe repatriation of the refugees. Damascus, however, has said Turkey needs to withdraw from areas in northern Syria that it controls.

While the U.S. and Europe are likely to seek Turkey’s support on some issues, like Sweden’s membership in NATO, observers said the relationship will be remain difficult in other areas, such as Turkey’s accession to the European Union. Those talks are stalled over democratic backsliding under Erdogan and are unlikely to be revived.

“Another five years of Erdogan means more of the geopolitical balancing act between Russia and the West,” wrote Galip Dalay, associate fellow at Chatham House in London. “Turkey and the West will engage in transactional cooperation wherever (Turkey’s) interests dictate it — and it will compartmentalize its relationship.”

___

Bilginsoy reported from Istanbul. Cinar Kiper in Bodrum, Turkey, contributed to this report.

How did Erdogan held onto power in Turkiye despite worse economy, hyperinflation?

May 29, 2023 by economictimes.indiatimes.com Leave a Comment

Synopsis

What is astonishing is how the majority of Turkish people elected Erdogan despite a worsening economy and now chronic hyperinflation that would likely bring down any government in a democratic country. So, how did Erdogan win the election and, more significantly, what is likely to happen in the country in the foreseeable future?

Recep Tayyib Erdogan will remain president of Turkiye for another five years after winning Sunday’s run-off election over his long-time rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. If he serves the full five-year term, he will have held power for 26 years – almost the entire history of Turkey in the 21st century.

What is astonishing is how the majority of Turkish people elected Erdogan despite a worsening economy and now chronic hyperinflation that would likely bring down any government in a democratic country.

So, how did Erdogan win the election and, more significantly, what is likely to happen in the country in the foreseeable future?

The election was free in that political parties could put forth nominees on their own and carry out campaigns. Parties also had the right to have representatives in every polling station to ensure the votes were counted correctly. And voters were free to vote.

However, the election was far from fair.

First, a potential leading rival in the race, Ekrem Imamoglu, was sentenced in December to more than two years in prison on a charge of “insulting public figures”.

Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, dealt Erdogan’s party a rare defeat in the 2019 Istanbul elections. Polls had shown he could win against Erdogan in the presidential election by a comfortable margin.

Some argue the court ruling was politically motivated. With Imamoglu out of the picture, the opposition had to coalesce behind Kilicdaroglu, the weakest of all possible high-profile candidates.

Erdogan also has an almost ubiquitous grip over the Turkish media, engineered through Fahrettin Altun, the head of media and communication at the presidential palace.

Turkish media are either directly owned by Erdogan’s relatives, such as the popular Sabah newspaper managed by Sedat Albayrak, or controlled through managing editors appointed and monitored by Altun. Some independent internet news sites such as T24 practice self-censorship in order to remain operational.

With this massive media control, Erdogan and his men ensured he had the most television airtime.

Erdogan was depicted in the media as a world leader advancing Turkey by building airports, roads and bridges. He was put in front of dozens of journalists on TV, but all the questions were prepared in advance and Erdogan read his answers through a prompter.

Altun also orchestrated a massive smear campaign against Kilicdaroglu. The opposition leader received minimal airtime, and when he was in the media, he was depicted as an inept leader unfit to rule the country.

Altun not only controlled the conventional TV channels and print media, but also social media. On Twitter, a very influential platform in Turkey, Altun used bots and an army of paid trolls and influencers to seek to control the dialogue.

And it worked. Sufficient number of voters were swayed through confusion and fear that the country would be far worse if Kilicdaroglu was elected.

Lastly, there was the potential for fraud due to the non-transparent way the election results are processed. Once each ballot box is counted, the ballot and result sheet are transported by police in cities and the military in regional areas to the electoral commission. Both the police and military are under Erdogan’s tight control.

The results are then reported only through the state-owned Anadolu Agency, while in the past they were reported by multiple independent agencies.

Even if no evidence of fraud emerges in this election, the spectre could put in doubt the integrity of the entire electoral process.

There are two other factors that were decisive in the elections.

The first is the support Erdogan received from Sinan Ogan, who was third in the first round of the presidential election two weeks ago, with 5.2 per cent of the votes. Erdogan persuaded Ogan to throw his support to him.

The second and most important factor was the way Erdogan was viewed in an almost mythical fashion by conservative and religious voters. For them, Erdogan is a religious hero and saviour.

The religious population in Turkey has long suffered persecution in the name of secularism. For them, Kilicdaroglu and his Republican People’s Party symbolised that persecution.

Although Kilicdaroglu abandoned the party’s previous strict secular policies, these voters never forgave it for preventing Muslim women from wearing the head scarf in educational and state institutions and keeping religion out of public life and politics for decades.

The conservative and religious right in Turkey sees Erdogan as a world leader and a hero who struggled against ill-intentioned forces, both internally and externally, to make Turkey great again.

Turkey desperately needed a change of government and a breath of fresh air. Now the social, political and economic suffocation is likely to get worse.

Erdogan had promised a Turkish revival by 2023, which is the 100th anniversary of the republic’s founding. Turkiye was supposed to enter the top 10 economies in the world by then. However, Turkiye barely sits in the top 20, at 19th.

The economy has experienced a significant downturn in the past three years. The Turkish lira has plummeted in value, leading to a dollar-based economy.

But dollars are hard to come by. The Turkish Central Bank kept the economy afloat by emptying its reserves in the last few months for the elections. The Central Bank has been running a current account deficit of USD 8-10 billion dollars every month, and its reserves last week fell into the negative for the first time since 2002.

Now Erdogan has to find money. He will resort to high interest foreign loans and embark on a diplomatic spree of the oil-rich Muslim countries to draw some of their funds to Turkiye. The uncertainty around how successful these endeavours will be and their likely short-term gain may throw the Turkish economy into recession.

For the people of Turkiye, this could mean massive unemployment and a reduced cost of living. The inflation rate had reached a 24-year high of 85.5 per cent last year, and may go even higher, as the cash-strapped government continues to print digital money to pay for its large bureaucratic workforce.

On foreign policy, Erdogan will continue to try to become a regional power independent of NATO, the European Union and the US. He will likely continue to strengthen Turkiye’s ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which has been a worry for Turkiye’s Western allies.

This will be Erdogan’s absolute last term in office, according to the Turkish constitution, and it could possibly be cut short.

The 69-year-old president has many health problems. He is becoming increasingly physically frail, finding it hard to walk, and his speech often slurs. In coming years, his health may get worse and he may have to hand over his presidency to a trusted deputy.

The other possibility is that potential leaders in his party could decide to carry out a party coup to topple Erdogan before his term is up, so they can garner public support ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

While there may be some political stability in post-election Turkiye for now, the country will be in economic, social and political turmoil for the foreseeable future.

(The writer is Associate Professor in Islamic Studies, Director of The Centre for Islamic Studies and Civilisation and Executive Member of Public and Contextual Theology, Charles Sturt University Melboune)
(This article is syndicated by PTI from The Conversation)

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Global supply chain relocation: China’s loss is India, Vietnam’s gain

May 29, 2023 by economictimes.indiatimes.com Leave a Comment

Synopsis

While China may be slowly losing its dominance as the world’s supply chain centre, India needs to boost its efforts to make the most out of the current situation.

The ongoing global economic uncertainty has exposed many vulnerabilities with global supply chains. The recent events have even raised doubts over globalisation, with many economies now understanding the fragility of the global supply chains and mulling shifting to a model that is more regionally based.

Keeping this situation at the centre, a World Economic Forum ( WEF )’s report, Chief Economists Outlook, outlines the emerging contours of the current economic conditions and pinpoints priorities for further action by policymakers and businesses globally. The report states that the regions most likely to benefit from the global supply chain changes are South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the US.

The report specifically states that economies that are likely to benefit from these changes are India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, and Poland. These assertions are backed by the fact that many of these countries have managed to attract substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) in the last few years. For instance, the financial year 2021-22 recorded the highest FDI into India at $83.6 billion. Similarly, in 2021, Vietnam attracted more than $31.15 billion in FDI pledges, 9% higher than the previous year.

China ’s prospects to take a hit
The WEF outlook also notes that amid this shift in supply chains, China is expected to be particularly affected. Most of the chief economists surveyed by the WEF say they expect supply-chain restructuring to have a negative impact on China’s economic prospects.

A classic example is the American tech firm Apple , which has plans to diversify its supply chains to other countries with an aim to reduce its heavy dependence on China. The iPhone-maker has been assembling its products in both India and Vietnam for a few years and aims to leverage its presence in these countries and increase its volume of production.

A 2022 forecast by JP Morgan states that the percentage of Apple products made in China will fall to 75% from 95% by 2025. Apple may manufacture one out of four iPhones in India by 2025.

The WEF survey states, “The twin pressures of deepening geopolitical tensions and intensifying industrial policy mean that further adjustments in the global supply chain are almost inevitable in the coming years.”

Arun Singh , Chief Economist, Dun & Bradsheet, says that the geopolitical and economic uncertainties have highlighted that a large part of the global economy was relying on just a few suppliers.

“We have seen China getting impacted with issues such as slowdown and closures in the recent past. It disrupted the global supply chain and hit the pricing and whatever demand we had at that time. We failed to meet even small demands at that time. Soon we realised the mistake of relying on just one supplier. Now you have the Russia-Ukraine crisis. There have been several regional developments in the near past which exposed countries to the supply chain risks. Now, companies are looking at diversification so that their supply chains are not impacted in such scenarios. In this new setting, we will see a supply chain approach shift,” says Singh.

Many companies are shifting from China towards safer locations or nearshoring or even moving towards their local markets. “What’s worse for China is that its domestic market is also saturating, implying it will only have majorly relied on the exports market – which itself is subdued due to the global slowdown,” he says.

Singh dismisses the idea that China may re-emerge strongly and get back the full mojo once it completely beats Covid-19. “China was practically never shut. Even when the entire world was seeing a shutdown, Chinese factories were operational. Saying now that China’s performance would get back to its pre-pandemic days is too far-fetched. We should understand that Covid-19 is history now.”

Supply chain diversification is here to stay
The chief economists in the WEF report are unanimous in anticipating further changes in the structure of global supply chains. The business strategies they expect to contribute to this reconfiguration include adaptation to geopolitical fault lines, the prioritisation of resilience over efficiency, diversification of suppliers and an increased focus on environmental sustainability.

On a sectoral basis, the WEF outlook highlights a range of industries where they expect supply chain changes to be most pronounced, including semiconductors, green energy, automotive, pharmaceuticals, food, energy and the broad technology category.

Potential for India
India may have huge potential but Vietnam has done relatively well in attracting big names in the past few years. Other than Apple, Samsung has also opted for Vietnam. The country has also attracted Google for producing Pixel phones, as well as Nike and Adidas.

“We expect Vietnam to remain a key beneficiary for re-location or co-location of production, supported by its already well-known and favourable factors. These include competitive costs for a relatively skilled workforce, extensive free trade agreements (FTA), and proximity to China, beyond its bright medium-term growth prospects of 6%-7%. Vietnam’s growing electronics ecosystem will also be another advantage,” says DBS in its report released in April 2023.

So, convincing big firms for relocation would not be a cake walk for India.

Singh says India is working to attract FDI but a lot still needs to be done. “But I think there is a constant nudge from the government asking global manufacturers to settle their facilities in the country. We should not forget that India is equivalent to China and the US both from the market and cost-effectiveness perspective. Big efforts are still required and that is why we see the government pitching up with schemes such as PLI. Every country now is trying to get the benefit of this supply chain relocation. This is going to have an impact,” he adds.

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Ingredients in a Beer Mile: water, malt, hops, yeast, merciless entropy

December 11, 2019 by thetakeout.com Leave a Comment

There are certain inadvisable things you do because they seem like they might make a pretty good story later: jump out of a plane, swim with sharks, go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line. But my friend Zach Freeman and I had a much simpler dream: to conquer the body-and-mind-wrecking Beer Mile together. There are parameters, records, and an official governing body , but it comes down to a very basic set of rules:

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Run four laps around a track, drinking 12 ounces of beer (at least 5% ABV) in the designated area before each lap.
Finish each beer fully.
If you expel the beer at any point, you’re assessed a fifth penalty lap. (Only one lap is given as penalty, no matter how many times you do the thing your body really wants to do.)

We first heard about the… sport?… via this fascinating story of Lance Armstrong DNF-ing a beer mile. Survive the beer mile, we figured, and we would objectively defeat a famous disgraced athlete! Zach had never chugged a beer before (which is shocking, as he’s a former Texan), but has run multiple marathons. I, meanwhile, love drinking beer early and often, but hadn’t raced on a track since fifth grade, when I quit after realizing that track meets are as boring as church but much longer. With one runner and one brewery employee in the mix, it was a perfect matchup.

So Zach and I found a time (a beautiful Sunday morning), a place (an undisclosed track that was tolerant of our shenanigans but probably wouldn’t want to endorse them), and a crew that could help us further study the impact of beer on the run. Since John vs. Zach (Beer vs. Mile, Blobs vs. Snobs) was the core conflict, we assembled our roster around these two poles:

John: Grudging former Turkey Trot participant, beer writer, and simmering garbage bag of imitation White Castle .
Zach: Ten-time marathon finisher. Former racing event writer and current comedy writer .
Cindy Kuzma: Runner’s World contributor , beer 5k organizer, wrote a book on the body’s reaction to running. Total ringer.
Kamal Williams: Cohost of the Beerz & Barz hip hop and beer show. Was possibly fed a lot of barrel-aged stout and coerced into agreeing to participate.
Sam Carruthers: My brother, former cross country runner and three-time marathon finisher. An eight-years-younger version of me, so basically the real-life 1080 Snowboarding ghost .

We also had a race organizer and individual timers for each of us. Would physical fitness win the Beer Mile, or would time spent in the dive-bar trenches offer a unique edge? Let’s find out.

Beer vs. Mile

Lap 1 – John 1:48.85 | Zach 1:55.05

John: “Oh god, we’re doing this. And it’s my fault,” could have been tattooed on my forehead as our timer counted down the seconds. But the first beer made things better, because that’s what beer does. I was the first to finish the beer and immediately thought, “Hey, I could maybe take this first lap!” And indeed, I was the fastest man in the world.

For one lap.

Zach: I felt a sense of resignation as to how badly this was about to go for me. The word “Go!” was issued and we all grabbed our respective beers. As expected, I was the last to finish the first beer. I took off running with a sinking feeling, expecting liquid and massive carbonation to slow me down, but instead I felt… fine.

In fact, I felt great. And then I started burping. Not small burps. Big, game-changing belches like Charlie and Grandpa Joe use to save their lives at the end of Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory .

Lap 2 – John 2:59.69 | Zach 2:37.01

Zach: And then, suddenly, I was back at the starting line grabbing a second beer. Remarkably, this one went down quicker than the first. Against all expectations, I was enjoying myself.

I think it was during this second lap that I took the lead, burping the whole time.

John: You think. While Glory Boy there was strutting around, I was finding that the second beer was markedly not as enjoyable as the first. Moreover, I had to keep running, which had a bit of that forced-gym-class feel we know and love from the Presidential Physical Fitness Test days.

Lap 3 – John 3:54.58 | Zach 3:12.39

Zach: The third beer went down just as easily and the third lap may be one of the greatest running experiences of my life. It was 50 degrees, the sun was out, and there was a slight breeze. Everyone I was racing against was behind me. And, although it would be at least another 10 minutes before I truly realized it, I was wasted .

John: The struggle. I should not have picked one of my favorite beers for this contest. Beer #3 was that cold, hard moment where I thought about quitting. And it wasn’t just me having issues. Halfway through the lap, I encountered Cindy (who’d passed me by a bit earlier) hovering over a trash can with that worst of looks in her eyes. Not fear, not nausea, not pain—inevitability. But she was fine, because she’s generally superior.

Lap 4 – John 5:51.57 | Zach 3:40.92

Zach: As I grabbed my fourth beer, I wasn’t sure if my stomach could actually hold the contents of the can. But I chugged (carefully gulped) it down, tossed the can, and took off… at an extremely cautious walk, with my head thrust up to the sky as if introducing a new angle would make it too complicated for the liquid to escape and ensure it stayed down. About halfway into my final lap, staring up at the sky, I realized the worst had passed and I started jogging again. And I jogged across the finish line high on victory, exercise, and, of course, hops.

John: The fourth beer is where I drew upon my years of training in “we’re staying for one more, right?” I did the whole head-over-the-can-spit-and-mutter-to-self song and dance, but eventually had my own moment of mind over barley and a gigantic belch.

And time be damned, this one actually felt the best since Lap 1. By the end, I had the jaunty trot you fake at a 5k finish to pretend you aren’t the guy who was beaten by most of the strollers and a startling percentage of middle schoolers. I finished two minutes behind Cindy, which is something that I couldn’t do without the aid of performance-enhancing beverages. I remain confident that with additional belch training, I have a bright future in this sport.

(Also, Zach’s fourth-lap posture was straight out of a Max Fleischer cartoon.)

The Results

Against all odds, we didn’t get one full-on puke in the bunch. Sam did what we judged a “foam yak” just into the second lap and took the penalty for it. He also almost quit after the harrowing ordeal.

“I didn’t know you could foam at the mouth without having rabies,” Sam said. “The sound of it hitting the track was revolting, and I responded by veering all the way to the right side of the track and laughing, like an insane person. The third lap was shame-filled and my mouth tasted like ears.”

But he finished, only slightly worse for the wear, as did we all. And hey, believe it or not, the runners were the best at the whole timed-running part:

Overall Standings

Zach – 11:25
Cindy – 12:50
Me – 14:34
Sam – 17:39
Kamal – 19:14

But the real point of this experiment was to get all FiveThirtyEight on things and measure the physical and emotional fortitude of our athletes.

Prior to the event, we had each runner run a timed non-beer mile (which you may know as “running a mile”) to compare. We then calculated the percentage increase to see how everyone fared with beer. The results shook things up a bit:

Beer Standings

Zach – 8:12 regular mile, 39.2% time increase
Kamal – 12:42 regular mile, 51.4% time increase
John – 9:26 regular mile, 54.4% time increase
Sam – 9:30 regular mile, 85.8% time increase
Cindy – 6:30 regular mile, 97.4% time increase

Zach is annoyingly competent at this for someone who texted me the entire month prior to express his nervousness at chugging a beer. Double golds for him. And Kamal, who brought up the rear, was the second most iron-willed chugger of the day. I finished middle of the pack, which is very on-brand, and Sam just behind me, which I will remind him of at all family holidays until he inevitably pushes me down the stairs. Finally, if the film Inside Out is at all accurate, trained athlete Cindy definitely had a bunch of tiny people within her screaming, “WHAT IS HAPPENING?!? OH GOD, WHY?! AHHHH!”

The (perhaps inadvisable) lesson: If you aren’t happy with your mile performance, maybe start drinking and bump yourself up into a higher percentile of World Class Athlete. Because 48 ounces of carbonated liquid is quite the thing for anyone to carry around, no matter how fit they are.

The second lesson: All five of us are objectively superior physical specimens to Lance Armstrong.

The last and most important lesson: Don’t do a beer mile. But if you do, may your beer stay within.