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ANZ says higher official cash rate peak might be needed

May 17, 2023 by www.stuff.co.nz Leave a Comment

ANZ has become the latest bank to increase its prediction of the peak for the official cash rate (OCR).

It said it now expected the rate to peak at 5.75%, rather than 5.5% as previously predicted, which is also the Reserve Bank’s forecast peak.

The rate is currently 5.25%.

ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said the bank was picking a 25 basis point increase next week and another in July.

Data since the April review had been tilted to the upside overall, ANZ’s economists said.

While inflation had come in lower than expected, and inflation expectations had dropped, along with inflation in wages as measured by the Labour Cost Index (LCI), migration had boomed.

There were also signs that house prices were reaching a floor earlier than expected and mortgage rates were slipping.

The Reserve Bank was also likely to be wary of any stimulatory fiscal policy announced in the Budget.

“Immigration is storming,” they said in an update.

The Reserve Bank assumed net migration for the year would be 25,600 but that number had been reached in the first three months alone.

ANZ’s economists said that number could still turn out to be incorrect, the migration wave could peter out or more supply of labour could dampen wage pressure and hasten the turn of the labour market.

But migration could also add to demand in the housing market and boost demand pressures on the economy.

They said a pause in the OCR was unlikely next week because the data, on balance, made an increase warranted and the central bank had already indicated that was its plan.

“[A pause] would risk a slump in future OCR expectations and hence fixed mortgage rates at a time the housing market is turning upwards. We see the odds of a pause as around 5%.

“On the other hand, a 50 basis point hike could backfire in that it could see the market decide the Reserve Bank has definitely overdone it.”

That could mean markets priced in cuts more aggressively, removing the impact of the increase.

ANZ said, on the data alone, the Reserve Bank could justify a 6% peak but there were still downside risks.

Earlier in the week, Westpac said its pick was a 6% peak.

Chief economist Kelly Eckhold said the surge in migration had the potential to upset the Reserve Bank’s “grand plan”.

Homes used to cost a lot less, but in previous decades home loan interest rates were much higher. Home loans rates are however on the rise as the Reserve Bank Te Pūtea Matua has been raising the official cash rate to fight inflation.

“More insurance is required to be sure of bringing inflation back into the target range. We see the OCR rising further to 6% by August and remaining there until mid- 2024 when it should be clearer that inflation pressures have substantially moderated. By then CPI inflation should hopefully be closer to 4% and falling.”

Gareth Kiernan, chief economist at Infometrics, said he still expected a 5.75% peak, as he had forecast previously.

“Although other forecasters seem to be playing catch-up with their picks, we’ve been a little bit reassured by recent data from the Reserve Bank’s survey of expectations showing two-year-ahead inflation expectations easing to their lowest level since September 2021 We think the bank is now getting close to the point where it needs to sit tight and let the effects of its rate rises to date work their way through the economy.”

He said migration flows presented a risk of boosting demand generally and for housing specifically.

“However, I don’t think they translate immediately through into more demand in the residential construction industry, given that activity has been disconnected from population growth over the last two years, with interest rate movements proving to be the predominant driver instead. Thus one of the most stretched parts of the economy is likely to be under less demand pressures over the next couple of years, no matter what.

“It’s also worth noting that stronger immigration is helping relieve some of the critical shortages in the labour market, which should start to moderate labour cost pressures within the next year, reducing the effects of a key driver of inflation.”

But he said if net migration continued at its current rate the inflow would reach more than 123,000 this year and the economy’s ability to meet that demand would be severely stretched.

The Reserve Bank would have to take further action to weaken the labour market and reduce the appeal for migrants.

“We saw the net migration boom in the early 2000s and lack of a coherent population or migration policy from the government cause similar demand-side issues and ultimately force interest rate rises by the Reserve Bank.”

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ONGC Videsh has less than $100 mn stuck in Russia, says official

May 29, 2023 by economictimes.indiatimes.com Leave a Comment

Synopsis

​​ Indian state oil firms have invested USD 5.46 billion in buying stakes in four different assets in Russia. These include a 49.9 per cent stake in the Vankorneft oil and gas field and another 29.9 per cent in the TAAS-Yuryakh Neftegazodobycha fields.

India’s flagship overseas firm ONGC Videsh has less than USD 100 million of dividend income lying in Russia because of Ukraine conflict but the company is not in a hurry to bring it back, a senior official said on Monday.

Indian state oil firms have invested USD 5.46 billion in buying stakes in four different assets in Russia. These include a 49.9 per cent stake in the Vankorneft oil and gas field and another 29.9 per cent in the TAAS-Yuryakh Neftegazodobycha fields.

They get dividends on profits made by the operating consortium from selling oil and gas produced from the fields. Soon after invading Ukraine in February last year, Russia put restrictions on repatriation of dollars to check volatility in foreign exchange rates.

OVL, the overseas arm of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), got its last dividend back in July 2022. One dividend payout that came after that is lying in the company’s account in Russia.

Its managing director Rajarshi Gupta said the dividend income lying in Russia is “less than USD 100 million.”

“We are not in a hurry to get it back as the company has capital and operating expenses for the three projects in Russia,” he said. “It is business as usual as far as dividend is concerned.”

OVL holds interest in Russia through a Singapore subsidiary.

Moscow declared Singapore as an unfriendly nation last year and so money from Russia cannot flow to any company incorporated in that country.

He said the company is looking at right banking channels and discussions are on. Last week, Oil India officials said USD 300 million dividend income of the company and its partners are stuck in Russia.

The consortium of OIL, Indian Oil Corporation ( IOC ) and Bharat PetroResources Ltd has stakes in two projects.

The USD 300 million dividend was lying with the Commercial Indo Bank LLC (CIBL), which was a joint venture of State Bank of India and Canara Bank. Canara Bank in March sold its 40 per cent stake in CIBL to SBI .

The dividend from TAAS was paid on a quarterly basis, while Vankorneft’s earnings were paid half-yearly. The Indian firms are looking at options of how to repatriate the money from Russia, he said.

OVL holds a 26 per cent stake in Suzunskoye, Tagulskoye and Lodochnoye fields — collectively known as the Vankor cluster in the north-eastern part of West Siberia.

Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Oil India Ltd (OIL) and Bharat PetroResources Ltd (a unit of Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd or BPCL ) hold another 23.9 per cent in Vankor. Russia’s Rosneft is the operator with 50.1 per cent interest.

The consortium of OIL, IOC and Bharat PetroResources has a 29.9 per cent stake in TAAS-Yuryakh Neftegazodobycha. The operations of the fields have not been impacted and they continue to produce as normal.

OVL also has a 20 per cent stake in the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas field in Far East Russia, and in 2009 acquired Imperial Energy, which has fields in Siberia, for USD 2.1 billion.

OVL, which has 32 oil and gas properties in 15 countries from Venezuela to Vietnam, had seen oil production fall to 6.349 million tonne in 2022-23 fiscal (April 2022 to March 2023) from 8.099 million tonne in the previous year.

Gas output also dipped to 3.822 billion cubic meters from 4.231 bcm in 2021-22. The lower production was because of halting of operations at Sakhalin-1 for seven months after operator Exxon declared force majure post Ukraine war.

But higher oil prices help it post a net profit of Rs 1,700 crore in FY23 as against a PAT of Rs 1,589 crore in the previous fiscal.

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No deaths reported after rescuers rush to save residents from Iowa building collapse, officials say

May 29, 2023 by www.denverpost.com Leave a Comment

DAVENPORT, Iowa (AP) — Firefighters and other first responders are being credited with saving lives – at great risk to their own safety – after a six-story apartment building in Iowa partially collapsed, authorities said Monday.

There were no confirmed fatalities and no known people still trapped the morning after a section of brick building in the eastern Iowa city of Davenport crashed to the ground. Mayor Mike Matson said members of the Davenport Fire Department and others went “literally into an unsafe building” to try to rescue residents.

“When something like this happens here, and tragedy strikes, our responders immediately do their work and their job and I can’t thank them enough,” Matson said at a news conference Monday.

Fire Chief Michael Carlsten said workers searched for survivors throughout the night and rescued one person from the six-story building — bringing the total number of people rescued by fire officials to eight. An additional 12 people were escorted out by fire crews when they first responded to the collapse on Sunday evening.

“No known individuals are trapped in that facility,” Carlsten said. Authorities have not released how many people were injured or provided details on the nature of their injuries. Carlsten did say that the person who was rescued overnight was in the hospital.

Rescue teams, including K-9 units, were inside the building all night.

Rescuers were called to the scene shortly before 5 p.m. Sunday. Carlsten said the back of the apartment complex collapsed and had separated from the building, which houses apartments on the upper floors and businesses on the ground level.

Authorities found a gas leak after the collapse, Carlsten said, while water also had leaked throughout the floors of the structure.

The stability of the building was still a concern.

Carlsten said officials were “currently finishing the rescue phase of our operation and soon it will become a recovery operations.”

The cause of the collapse was not immediately known.

Rich Oswald, City of Davenport director of development and neighborhood services, said at a news conference Sunday that work was being done on the building’s exterior at the time of the collapse.

Reports of bricks falling from the building earlier this week were part of that work and the building’s owner had a permit for the project, Oswald said.

The Quad-City Times reported Robert Robinson, a second-floor resident, had gone outside and returned as alarms went off in the building.

“When we started to go back in the lights went out,” he told the newspaper. “All of a sudden everybody started running out saying the building collapsed. I’m glad we came down when we did.”

Robinson and his girlfriend were able to take the elevator down just in time, he said.

“This is horrible,” he said. “We don’t have anywhere to go. Nothing to eat.”

Tadd Machovec, a Davenport contractor, told the newspaper he was inside putting up a support beam when the building came down.

Some people in the area said the building has had problems. City officials said Sunday that they had several complaints from residents about needed repairs.

“The tenants told us the building was going to collapse,” said Jennifer Smith, co-owner of Fourth Street Nutrition, which moved into the building this winter.

“It sounds bad, but we have been calling the city and giving complaints since December. Our bathroom caved in December,” she said.

Smith said water damage has been apparent since they moved into their space. Her fellow co-owner, Deonte Mack, said fire crews were in the building as recently as Thursday for an inspection.

The Quad-City Times reported the building is owned by Andrew Wold. A working phone number for Wold was not immediately available Sunday night and attempts to reach him for comment were unsuccessful.

The newspaper reported nearly 20 permits were filed in 2022 for building repairs, mainly for plumbing or electrical issues, according to the county assessor’s office.

There were 84 units in the building, a mixture of residential and commercial spaces, the mayor said.

In June 2021, 98 people died when a high-rise condominium near Miami Beach collapsed in the middle of the night.

The Champlain Towers South had a long history of maintenance problems, and shoddy construction techniques were used in the early 1980s. Other possible factors for the collapse include sea level rise caused by climate change and damage caused by saltwater intrusion.

Filed Under: Uncategorized building collapse, Buildings Collapse, energy saving technology in buildings, Death Reported, building collapse in Hyderabad, building collapsed, Building collapses, Death Reports, buildings collapsing, 911 buildings collapse

Oil slips as economic jitters offset U.S. debt deal

May 29, 2023 by economictimes.indiatimes.com Leave a Comment

Synopsis

Oil prices dipped due to economic worries, despite a debt ceiling deal being reached in the US that averted an economic default and helped support higher demand. U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had agreed to suspend the $31.4tn debt ceiling and cap government spending for the next two years. However, markets remain wary of a potential rise in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which would be a “headwind for crude oil demand,” said analyst Tony Sycamore. OPEC+ is due to meet on 4 June; Saudi Arabia and Russia appear to be divided on whether to cut production output.

Oil prices slipped on Monday as economic worries over further interest rate hikes trumped a tentative debt ceiling deal reached in the U.S., possibly averting a default in the world’s largest economy and oil consumer.

Brent crude futures slipped 68 cents, or 0.8%, to $76.27 a barrel by 1350 GMT , while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $72.11 a barrel, down 56 cents or 0.7%.

Trade is expected to be subdued on Monday because of UK and U.S. public holidays.

U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the weekend forged an agreement to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and cap government spending for the next two years. Both leaders expressed confidence that members of the Democratic and Republican parties will vote to support the deal.

Still, analysts saw any boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short lived, with earlier gains in the session now lost.

The U.S. Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates in June, IG’s Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. “Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand,” he added.

Markets are leaning towards expecting the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points next month, then keep rates steady for the rest of the year.

Chinese stocks fell after data showed profits slumping at China’s industrial firms.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC ) and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, is due to meet on June 4.

Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman warned short-sellers betting that oil prices will fall to “watch out”, in a possible signal that OPEC+ may further cut output.

However, comments from Russian oil officials and sources, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, indicate the world’s third-largest oil producer is leaning towards leaving output unchanged.

“Traders have been left a little confused as to what we can expect,” said Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA .

“It may be that Saudi Arabia wants to keep traders on their toes, but to make these comments and not follow through could be perceived as weak and see prices drift lower again,” Erlam said.

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Boris Johnson ‘went room to room in No 10 apologising for partygate’

May 25, 2023 by www.telegraph.co.uk Leave a Comment

Boris Johnson went into every room in No 10 to apologise to staff over partygate, his former communications chief has said.

Guto Harri recalled how Mr Johnson made a point of directly expressing his remorse after Sue Gray’s report into lockdown gatherings was published in May 2022.

The former prime minister had told MPs he was “appalled” by the treatment of security guards and cleaners during the parties.

In the third episode of his LBC podcast Unprecedented, Mr Harri said: “The hurt he was referring to there was caused to individuals, men and women in No 10 who worked hard.

“On his [Johnson’s] return from the Commons chamber, I suggested that we went round to see the real victims, and we did.

“And to his credit, he went into every one of those rooms and said: ‘I’m so sorry, I had no idea what you endured. And it’s unforgivable, and nobody should have to put up with that, particularly in a place like this.’

“The response was very reassuring. Almost to a man and to a woman, they made it clear — ‘sir, you were never rude to us, you were ill-served.’ Basically the people that Sue Gray was referring to were unnamed officials or special advisers, not Boris Johnson himself, although he carried the can.”

Mr Harri went on to say security guards at Downing Street greeted the apology with “utter bafflement”, and some replied that nobody was ever “rude” to them.

‘Haven’t we all heard enough by now?’

He also voiced his scepticism over the fresh police investigation into partygate that has been launched amid claims Mr Johnson broke lockdown rules at his grace-and-favour home.

“I struggle to see that it’s in anyone’s interest to open a whole new front with allegations of breaches at the PM’s official country residence, Chequers, raking over the same old ground and delaying further the outcome of the privileges committee,” he said.

“Haven’t we all heard enough by now and made up our minds? Let’s see.”

Mr Johnson has strongly denied the new allegations of rule-breaking , with his political allies branding the fresh inquiry a “smear”.

Elsewhere, Mr Harri revealed Mr Johnson was “hysterical” on the night before the Sue Gray report.

Its publication followed a police investigation that saw Mr Johnson receive a single fine over a “birthday party” event in the Cabinet room on Jun 19, 2020.

“As Boris put it, the media felt cheated of a scalp, so they looked to Sue Gray to provide the next bullet,” Mr Harri told listeners.

“He expected her to be tough but he also expected her to be fair, and that changed. The pressure was getting to Boris and at times emotions spilled over, trumping reason.”

‘Destroyer of the nation’

In addition to Mr Johnson labelling Ms Gray a “psycho”, Mr Harri added: “On another occasion she was the ‘destroyer of the nation’, trying to do us in.”

An inquiry by Parliament’s cross-party privileges committee into whether Mr Johnson knowingly and recklessly misled Parliament over partygate is ongoing .

If the committee finds against Mr Johnson, he could face a range of sanctions including suspension from the Commons, which could trigger a by-election.

Mr Harri insisted Tory MPs voting to approve the work of the committee was the moment “the game was lost” for the Johnson administration.

“The police had already investigated, Sue Gray had already investigated. The party had already had the chance to vote Boris down. After all that they were still saying they needed one last attempt to allow political opponents to bring down Boris.

“That was the moment for me when I thought this party is going to self-destruct. This is mass suicide by Conservative MPs.

“This is the moment when they are showing their propensity to self-harm, and their willingness to see one of the most successful leaders they’ve ever had — in terms of winning elections, at least — destroyed.”

Mr Harri also branded Downing Street officials partying on the eve of Prince Philip’s funeral as “unforgivable” .

“I think that was the moment this went stratospheric, although it was also the moment it became clear Boris Johnson wasn’t the main suspect. Because he wasn’t even in No 10 on that occasion, he was 40 miles away at his country retreat of Chequers.”

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